PRICES of $300-plus a tonne for wheat this season and borderline moisture to plant a crop could be enough to entice farmers to plant.
Robinson Grain Trading commodity trader Adam Robinson, Sydney, said APW wheat was currently selling for more than $300 a tonne.
“Prices are above average for this time of year and there’s a lot of incentive for farmers to plant this season,” he said.
Recent rainfall across the Moree region has given promise to farmers who were hoping to plant wheat, but while moisture levels look good for sowing, more will be needed through the season.
B and W Rural senior agronomist Rob Long, Moree, said the rain was lifesaving for farmers in the area.
“About 80 per cent of the crop area will now go in whereas that was looking like a much lower percentage before the rain on March 27,” he said.
But farmers were a long way from harvest and another 30 millimetres of rain would be needed before they were confident to start planting.
“The whole district is still pretty nervous about the medium term prospects, above average in-crop rain is needed for a successful season,” he said.
Lloyd George from Ag Scienta said this year would be no different to last year’s winter crop in that northern regions of NSW were much drier than the south.
However, Mr Robinson suspects if farmers get enough moisture they will plant wheat.
“With these types of numbers (prices) they’ll have a go and hope for a good spring,” he said.
Into the Central West and southern districts the situation looks much rosier.
Farmers from both Wagga Wagga and Dubbo have been given a great start to the season, said Elders agronomist David Pollard, Dubbo.
He said this autumn had been the best in the region for 10 years.
“With the fellows that generally put in a winter cereal, 70 per cent will plant wheat,” he said.
However, farmers across both regions would like some more rain just to be sure of the season.
Delta Agribusiness agronomist Elissa Strong, Wagga, said the area planted to wheat would be about normal.
However, she said a lot of growers would consider the relatively new variety Suntop this season due to its yield potential and ease of management.
She said farmers had been pleased with existing varieties, but were also keen to see what new varieties could offer.
These included Dart and Elmore.
If the season keeps improving at Bourke, where there has been some rain, wheat – which is an opportunity crop for the region – could also be an option.
However, this would depend on prices remaining strong, some more rain and a good flow in the river, said Darling Irrigation agronomist Dave Jorgensen.
Walgett meanwhile, was still in limbo with the sowing window closing in and no good prospects for rain, having also missed all the useful falls in the recent wet changes.
Agronomic consultant Greg Rummery said grower decisions weren’t very advanced at this stage as they were hoping for more rain during April and May to improve their chances of getting a crop.
He said if farmers in the region could tip another 100mm of rain out of the gauge a lot would take a chance and sow.
But regardless of the conditions at sowing time, “growers are growers, and some of them will still take a punt,” he said.
Taking a seasonal punt at Moree
ABOVE average in-crop rain is what’s needed to make Hugh Ball’s seasonal punt worthwhile.
Mr Ball runs “Oodnadatta”, Moree, with his wife Sarah.
The dryland operation to the north-east of Moree has plenty of need for more rain with its moisture profile at about 10 to 20 per cent full.
This year, Mr Ball has only received 109 millimeters of rain, but his annual average rainfall for the year to the end of March is usually 230mm.
Despite the dry start, Mr Ball said the season had been business as usual and he was planning to sow about 9000 hectares of winter crop, comprising of wheat, barley and chickpeas.
“We have to have a go, we won’t make any money with the seed sitting in the silo, but it’s a punt,” he said.
In anticipation of what’s to come through the season, the couple have fertilised 9000ha with urea using a disc planter.
“The question is how much we should apply pre-crop given our poor starting moisture,” Mr Ball said.
Mr Ball’s farming rotation is based on 70pc of the area being dedicated to winter crops and 30pc for summer crops.
Mr Ball plans to use any area not used for winter crop for summer crops, including cotton, sorghum and sunflowers.
“The whole outlook of the season can change overnight. That is one thing we do know, so we have our fingers crossed and are looking forward,” Mr Ball said.
