THE AWB sites at Gilgandra, Nyngan and Narromine have all commenced harvest receivals of barley and canola so far.
Quality has been pretty good at this early stage with only a few reports of sub 40 per cent oil levels in canola to date.
I would expect given how the season finished there is some potential for lower oil in some canola and also screenings in wheat.
Yields have been about on par with expectations.
Some early canola has been ranging 1.5 tonnes a hectare to 2t/ha and barley better than 3t/ha in areas.
With the forecast for clear, sunny and warm condition through to Sunday things will start to get a lot busy around the place, therefore please take extra care either in the paddock, on the road or at your local grain receival site.
The harvest period can unfortunately be a time when accidents can occur, so look after each other.
Grain and oilseed prices have found some support during the past week right on the cusp of harvest.
This has encouraged some extra forward selling from growers on wheat, barley and canola.
Wheat prices got up to levels about $290 a tonne Newcastle zone and canola close to $460/t in the Newcastle zone too.
Milling wheat spreads have firmed too and I would expect these grades to be well supported by buyers, at least until wheat has progressed into southern NSW when a better grasp can be had on the quality and quantity of wheat in eastern parts of Australia.
Canola and malt barley will not be much different as finishing rain did not eventuate in many parts of eastern Australia, giving rise to the possibility of less supply of grains and oilseeds than is currently forecast.
This is one of very few bullish inputs in the global grains and oilseed market currently.
There is still plenty of wheat in the European Union (EU) and Black Sea, US end stocks could rise above 700 million bushels, Canada's export surplus is only slightly below last year despite a lower crop, Argentina could have a 5.5 million tonne or bigger surplus this year, and for now, only Australia has a question mark.
Bottom line, there is no evident supply problem, no demand story and little reason for any real upside to wheat.
With the above situation in mind, only a far less than currently forecast Australian supply of grains and oilseeds can add further price rises to the market.
If on the flipside supply steadies or increases as we move through harvest, grower selling plus a decent exportable surplus in Eastern Australia basis will get hammered and prices will thus follow.
So in summary, with crops in central and western NSW looking okay and harvest just getting underway, I feel growers in these parts are best positioned to take advantage of basis fluctuations during the next month or so until the quality and quantity of the Australia crop in known.
Therefore, sell now for cash flow purposes and hold balance for further selling opportunities as we move through November and December.
Damien Manson is an AWB farm marketer at Dubbo.