A LOT of work is needed in the field of crop adaptation if farmers are to retain at least current productivity in decades to come.
Research by the NSW Department of Primary Industries (DPI) showed yields in major crops could drop by 12 per cent as soon as 2030.
The paper, produced by DPI climate research officer Muhuddin Anwar (et al), says it was urgent the grain industry "gain access to genetic and agronomic innovations that can address the negative impact of the adverse changes in the climate of the growing seasons which crucially determine broadacre crop yields".
In its conclusion it calls for adaption strategies that cover advances in agronomy, soil moisture conservation, seasonal climate forecast and breeding.
The problem is a predicted decline in average rainfall, according to Dr Anwar who said the paper used 18 global climate models to determine its outcome.
"Rainfall is the primary climate change threat to future crop yield, while increasing temperature is secondary," the paper said.
Dr Anwar said crops of the future will need to mature faster, have the ability to make better use of less rainfall, plus be adapted to take advantage of higher carbon dioxide levels.
He said shorter sowing, growing and flowering windows would negatively impact potential yield.
Increasingly sporadic rainfall would mean sudden rushes on seed and fertiliser, he said.
The project, funded by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, explored the effects of cumulative climate change across four different time periods (1961-2010; 2030; 2060 and 2090) for wheat, barley, lupins, canola and field peas.
It was run across four different locations (Wagga Wagga, Hamilton, Victoria and Cunderdin and Katanning in Western Australia) using climate modelling produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Dr Anwar said better seasonal forecasts are needed and more exact timing of fertiliser application to take advantage of rain as it fell.
Improved weather forecasting in particular had a big role to play in decision making around budgeting for fertiliser and better selections around crop varieties, reducing grower risk and increasing productivity in future, changing seasons, he said.
Therefore, there was more work to be done with the Bureau of Meteorology to assess the risk farmers might face.
The second stage of this project would include an evaluation of the economic impact of the changing climate of the grain industry.
Dr Anwar said this research provided useful insights which could inform policy formulation, help prioritise research and reform crop management practices.
Changing with the times
WHEN it comes to adaptation, Cootamundra farmer Charlie Bragg points to the past decade for a glimpse of the industry's ability to adapt in the next 15 years.
He said current crop varieties are probably relevant for what farmers will grow in 2030, but they'll adapt to changes - and so will farmers.
Mr Bragg runs the 3200-hectare "Landgrove", where production consists of 550ha of wheat, 550ha of canola, and the remainder used for prime lambs.
While he says man-made climate change is real, he believes it's not the spectre it's made out to be in mainstream media.
"Think what we knew 14 years ago to what we know now. Look at how much we've progressed, certainly with our sheep management," he said.
"(In cropping) we're much better at conserving our moisture. We're much better at keeping ground cover. Certainly we are no-till, we don't work the soil at all.
"I think as farmers we're really good at adapting across time, so as we get climate shocks that are really hard to deal with... we will gravitate towards the varieties that still suit us."
As for research spend, he was certain anything that looked beyond 2050 was a waste of time and we'd be better off using the money elsewhere.
He said any varieties which failed to stack up in trials and in the paddock could be dropped, "and we'll move on".
Alternative areas where farmers could benefit included government funded consultants to look at individual businesses and where some "fat" could be created in their systems.
More accurate weather forecasting was also important.
"Weather forecasting is inherently tricky, you just don't know what's going to happen," he said.
"If we know major weather events are highly likely in the future, then that can only be a good thing."
