NSW’s population is set to grow by two million people by 2031, with urban growth predicted to dramatically outstrip regional NSW.
Statewide and local area projections released this week by the Department of Planning and Infrastructure represent the first new figures in three years.
Regional NSW’s population is set to grow by 10 per cent, less than half of the 25 per cent growth predicted for Sydney.
A number of regional centres in Western NSW are predicted to decline significantly, while some regional centres closer to the coast should anticipate steep growth.
According to new projections from NSW Department of Planning - based on Australian Bureau of Statistics Data - the State’s population will increase from 7.2 million to 9.2 million in the 20 years from 2011 to 2031.
However, regional NSW is projected to grow by just 200,000 over the next 20 years, taking the population from 1.8 million to 2 million.
Sydney’s population is set to jump significantly more, from 4.3 million to 5.8 million.
The Bourke region’s population is predicted to decline by 24% between 2011 and 2031, falling from 3,100 to 2,350 – with the key driver listed as inter and intra-state migration.
Armidale district is expted to grow by 24%, from 25,250 to 31,450, driven by older tree-changers and migration.
Looking South, the Balranald district’s population is predicted to decline by 30%, from 2,350 to 1,650 as a result of residents leaving the region.
Wagga Wagga district is set to grow by 19%, from 61,500 to 73,050, as a result of high fertility rate in the region.
NSW Planning said the figures underline a need for a new planning system to better cater for this growth.
Planning Department director general Andrew Jackson said long-term strategic directions include “regional growth plans to… support growth across NSW”.
One initiative, the Regional Relocation Fund, has already failed to live up to expectations.
The scheme is missing its targets and enticing less than half the number of house buyers to preference the bush over Sydney, Wollongong or Newcastle.
Other Government initiatives include the Decade of Decentralisation - relocating 1500 public sector jobs from metropolitan Sydney to regional areas by 2021 and targeted regional industry investments.
Visit www.planning.nsw.gov.au/projections for a breakdown of population predictions across NSW.
The Land will follow this issue in the coming weeks. Let us know what you think about the future of regional NSW below.
