The battle for Barnaby Joyce's seat of New England is shaping as the most closely-watched contest of the next election, with rural independent Tony Windsor now more likely than not to mount a political comeback.
Mr Windsor told Fairfax Media on Wednesday he was a "better than 50 per cent" chance of declaring himself a candidate for his former seat.
Crucially, he is being "encouraged" to run by wife Lyn, and political associates confirmed it is "increasingly likely" he will attempt to unseat the Agriculture Minister and likely next leader of the National Party, Barnaby Joyce.
Mr Windsor, who has spent the best part of the past two months in the desert in Western Australia, is heading to Canberra next week and will discuss the idea of a comeback with former associates, including his friend and former balance of power independent Rob Oakeshott.
"I'd be lying if I said I wasn't thinking about it. I haven't made any decisions one way or the other but it's on the table. I'd say better than 50 per cent," he said.
Recent polling conducted in New England for the CFMEU found Mr Joyce would be under extreme pressure if Mr Windsor entered the race. The former MP would have pulled close to 38 per cent of the primary vote if an election had been called in August and favourable preferences could make it a knife-edge contest.
The Shenhua Watermark coal mine on the Liverpool Plains is a key issue in the electorate.
Mr Windsor will be back in the media spotlight next week, fronting two announcements in Canberra. One is believed to be a report into the reliance of rural and regional areas on the ABC.
He said Mr Joyce is beginning to be "found out" as the local member in the Tamworth-based electorate for "the things he is not doing".
Top of that list, according to Mr Windsor, is Mr Joyce's failure to ensure the full scientific examination of potential effects on groundwater of the Chinese-owned Shenhua Watermark coal mine on the Liverpool Plains, inside the New England electorate.
Mr Joyce broke ranks with his cabinet colleagues in July, saying the "world had gone mad" when his government approved the open-cut mine in the middle of one of Australia's richest agricultural regions.
Mr Windsor said: "He's getting away with it in some quarters but he's done nothing to ensure the scientific examination of the water effects other than to invite [Environment Minister] Greg Hunt to have a look at it."
But the Coalition has already flagged its intention to call out Mr Windsor as a hypocrite for selling his farm to Whitehaven Coal and for his integral role in keeping Julia Gillard in power and delivering the carbon tax.
Mr Joyce said he welcomed anyone putting their hand up for New England. "That's the wonderful thing about the country we live in, it's a democracy," he said.
"In regard to the mine, I do not support the mine; I've never supported the mine. I find it somewhat paradoxical that a person who is a multi-millionaire by virtue of selling their place to a coal mine is now an opponent of another coal mine."
Another potentially damaging issue for Mr Joyce in New England is the likely loss of a lucrative Defence contract with BAE Systems, the former British Aerospace, which operates a flight training college in Tamworth.
Air Force training is expected to be moved from Tamworth to Sale in Victoria at a cost of hundreds of direct and indirect jobs in the New England electorate. Sale is in the Gippsland electorate of Nationals MP Darren Chester, the parliamentary secretary to the Minister of Defence.
An announcement of a new contract, beginning 2016, has been delayed for the past nine months. Mr Joyce has told the local press that he is fighting for BAE but conceded he was already working on alternatives "if they do not win the contract".
