THE Bureau of Meteorology updated its El Niño southern oscillation forecast on July 1, continuing with its prediction there was a 70 per cent chance of El Niño conditions developing in 2014, but no El Niño yet.
The longer-term forecast is also for reduced rainfall as a consequence of anthropogenic global warming.
Bendigo-based, long-range weather forecaster, Kevin Long, is also forecasting an imminent El Niño and suggesting it’s likely to last through 2015.
Longer term Mr Long is forecasting a mega-drought for the Murray-Darling Basin caused not by anthropogenic global warming, but the bicentennial solar minimum cycle; meaning it could be as cool and as dry as it was about 200 years ago.
Since at least February, New Zealand-based long-range weather forecaster, Ken Ring, has been scoffing at the imminent El Niño forecasts.
Mr Ring is predicting this forecast is out by a whole year with the next El Niño to start in about July 2015 and to continue through 2016.
The forecasts by both Ken Ring and Kevin Long are informed by lunar, planetary and solar cycles, following in the footsteps of Inigo Jones.
There is also a growing scientific literature that recognises the celestial origin of the climate oscillations with Nicola Scafetta from Duke University, Qing Bing Lu from Waterloo University and Habibullo Abdussamatov from the Russian Academy of Science’s Pulkovo Observatory, all forecasting imminent global cooling.
Cooling, particularly at the Antarctic, is generally associated with reduced rainfall across southern Australia.
So, while there is no consensus among the climate scientists at the bureau and the astrophysicists at the universities about whether we can expect global warming or cooling for the next few decades, they would agree the future looks drier. The implications should be obvious for the Basin plan, but the problem is this document is based on the nonsense concept of average rainfall and stream flow in the highly variable Murray-Darling.
Indeed there was no reference to imminent drought in the terms of reference for the review of the Water Act 2007, as announced by Parliamentary Secretary for the Environment Simon Birmingham on May 12.
Rather, the focus was on issues such as whether water was being used to grow higher value crops, while paradoxically the same legislation mandates about one-third of the water that could be used to grow any crop is channelled down to the Lower Lakes where about 1000 gigalitres each year will be lost to evaporation.
Ultimately sensible water policy in the Murray-Darling needs to factor in the likelihood we could be in for some exceptionally dry years, and that one way to relieve pressure on the basin is to restore the estuary so the Lower Lakes are no longer dependent on the Burrinjuck, Hume or Dartmouth dams.
But neither the restoration of the estuary, nor the possibility of a mega-drought, is so far on the government’s agenda.
Dr Jennifer Marohasy is an independent environmental writer and researcher now living near Rockhampton, Qld.