Mike Baird is poised to lead the Coalition into a second term in NSW but with a substantially reduced majority after a hard-fought election campaign dominated by the future of the state's electricity network.
The most recent polling suggests the Coalition is likely to suffer a swing against it of about 10 per cent for the loss of as many as 18 seats but still comfortably be returned to power for the next four years.
However, much hangs on the result in the Legislative Council where the Coalition would need to pass legislation for its plan to partially privatise the electricity network and use the anticipated $20 billion proceeds for infrastructure.
A re-elected Coalition government would need to have nine members elected in the upper house to be able pass legislation with the support of the Christian Democratic Party, which is broadly supportive of the privatisation plan.
On Friday, Mr Baird said he wasn't taking anything for granted and the Coalition was "still in the fight of our lives".
"We are not going to take any vote for granted," he said. "We are going to fight for every one of them because we believe NSW deserves to keep surging forward and not go backwards."
Labor is expected to pick up key seats in western Sydney that fell to the Coalition in the 2011 landslide and has high hopes on the north coast, central coast and the Hunter thanks to the issues of coal seam gas and corruption.
But polling suggests Labor will fall well short of gaining the 27 seats required to form government.
Labor leader Luke Foley said he was "looking forward to surprising a lot of people tomorrow".
He was campaigning "to win" but would not resign the leadership if he lost the election. Mr Foley said he expected to remain Labor's leader "for many years".
Mr Foley, who was in the upper house in the last Parliament, is also trying to be elected to the lower house seat of Auburn.
On the last day of campaigning, Mr Baird visited the North West Rail Link construction site to remind voters his government delivered on that pledge – and, if given the chance to partially privatise the electricity network, will build more.
"Action speaks louder than words," he said. "We are making stunning progress in building a project that will change Sydney forever," he said, with Transport Minister Gladys Berejiklian by his side.
Mr Foley toured three western Sydney seats that had long Labor histories but were won by the Coalition in 2011: Prospect, Granville and Londonderry in the Blue Mountains.
Appearing outside Fairfield Hospital, Mr Foley underscored Labor's $1.25 billion for western Sydney hospitals and a plan to mandate a ratio of one nurse for every three patients.
