PUNDITS aren’t predicting many surprises from today’s state election, with the Coalition comfortably ahead on polling – but a few country seats could throw up some interesting results.
The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll had the Coalition ahead 54 per cent to Labor’s 46pc on a two-party-preferred basis.
That result would see the Coalition lose 18 seats from its whopping haul achieved in the landslide 2011 election, leaving them with 51 seats to form government, with Labor taking 38 in the 93 seat parliament.
But despite the looming likelihood of the election turning out to be a foregone conclusion, several seats in the bush are worth watching.
On the North Coast, opposition to coal seam gas (CSG) is heating up three Nationals held seats – Tweed, Lismore and Ballina – with Labor and/or the Greens hoping to capitalise.
Opposition to the Shenhua Watermark mine in the Liverpool Plains has created a tight contest for incumbent Nationals member Kevin Anderson, who is facing stiff opposition from the seat’s previous independent MP Peter Draper.
The safe Nationals seat of Barwon, in far-western NSW, has redrawn electoral boundaries and now includes for the first time Labor-leaning town Broken Hill with traditional Nats strongholds of Moree and Narrabri.
Also, Labor has declared a veto on CSG development in the Pilliga, near Narrabri, which is likely to woo some Barwon voters.
The new boundaries for the Liberal seat of Goulburn has boosted Labor’s chances of gaining the seat.
Former primary industries minister Steve Whan went to the Upper House in Opposition in 2011 in a seat vacated by Tony Kelly, three months after losing Monaro.
Mr Whan is contesting Monaro, traditionally the bellwether seat for state elections, which was taken from at the last election by the Nationals John Barilaro
But no matter what the result in the election, there will be at least one less rural MP sitting in Parliament.
The seat of Murrumbidgee was scrapped in the re-drawing of electoral boundaries by the NSW electoral commission in late 2013, and replaced with a new Sydney electorate, Newtown.
The boundaries of about 12 rural seats were changed and a supersized Barwon electorate bigger than Germany created.
The Murrumbidgee electorate is split between Murray-Darling, Barwon and Burrinjuck.
Murray-Darling shrank and was renamed Murray, and Burrinjuck - with boundaries moved markedly westward - was renamed Cootamundra.
The Electoral Commission said the changes were driven by the declining rural NSW population.
The Nationals hold most rural seats in NSW and NSW Labor now holds just one rural seat in the Lower House, Cessnock.
Labor's represntative for people west of the Divide is a sole Upper House member, spokesman for regional infrastructure and rural affairs, the former shearer and railways worker, Mick Veitch.
NSW's Upper House could hold the key to the state's fate
Polling predicts the Coalition will be returned to power, but the composition of the Upper House (or Legislative Council) could pull the plug on the party's trump card, its electricity privatisation plans - and the $20 billion infrastructure pitch it funds.
The House comprises 42 seats and the Coalition holds 19.
Unlike the Lower House, the Coalition would jointly need to increase its representation by a whopping nine seats to pass legislation in its own right.
Fred Nile's Christian Democrat Party (CDP), with the Shooters and Fishers, hold the balance of power, in the Upper House.
Each has one of two members up for election to an eight-year term.
The Shooters have committed to block Premier Mike Baird's privatisation pitch.
Mr Nile has said he wanted a guarantee over electricity workers jobs to support the move.