THE surge of lambs into the saleyards has put pressure on prices forcing some markets to lose ground for the fifth week in a row.
Eastern States lamb supply bounced 19 per cent last week to 170,536 head according to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA).
Much of the rise was driven by NSW yardings as supply in South Australia and Victoria has been much tighter.
In NSW last week the yardings rose to 134,160 head which was 23pc more lambs than the week before.
At Dubbo on Monday the lamb supply hit 44,000 head which was up another 4000 lambs on the week before.
The National Livestock Repor-ting Service (NLRS) said supply this week was expected to be much higher at Dubbo, but rain leading up to the sale reduced the final figure offered for auction.
Likewise at Wagga Wagga last Thursday lamb pennings surged to 43,300 head which was up about 15,300 lamb on the week before.
The yarding at Wagga was described as a typical mixed quality winter penning.
There were increased supplies of dry longer-wool lambs which were discounted heavily across all weight categories, the NLRS reported
On Tuesday evening the Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) was on 495 cents a kilogram (carcase weight).
This is about 50c/kg lower than the same time last week and 90/kg less than a month ago.
MLA said last Thursday when the Eastern States Restocker Lamb Indicator hit 433c/kg it was at its lowest level since February.
Mecardo analyst Augusto Semmelroth said it seemed lamb markets had embarked on the seasonal downtrend slightly earlier this year.
“Given the solid autumn break in central NSW, Victoria and SA, and sustained high prices, it looks like producers are opting to cash in at those prices sooner rather than later,” Mr Semmelroth said.
“That scenario might also be exacerbated by the ongoing uncertainty regarding El Niño.”
While the price falls have not been extreme, Mr Semmelroth said the ESTLI had still eased 60c/kg, or 10pc, from the highs seen in early June, to reach 531c/kg last Friday.
“Although lamb yardings continue to decline in Victoria, reaching the lowest level for this year with only 24,583 head yarded, saleyard throughput has been on the way up in NSW since the start of June,” he said.
He said tracking supply and price trends in the next couple of weeks would be critical to decide whether to sell lambs now or wait until January next year.
“We could well see a scenario where slaughterings are brought forward this year, which could lead to a supply shock in early 2015,” he said.
Lamb fever at Wagga
YATHELLA prime lamb producer Noel Leahy, “Glenavon”, has sold the bulk of his heavy lambs and will prepare suckers for the coming spring.
Mr Leahy has been riding the waves of the market during the past fortnight and sold the heavier draft of his second-cross Dorset lambs at the Wagga Wagga saleyards on July 17.
They averaged 65 kilograms and sold to a top of $184.
The prime market topped at $196 in Wagga on July 17 when 28,000 lambs and 7000 sheep were yarded.
Mr Leahy sold the lighter lot of the draft at last Thursday’s sale when the market dropped due to a massive yarding of 43,300 lambs.
The market was back about $20 for his lot which averaged $136, Mr Leahy said.
“I think the market’s hit its peak and will start coming back a bit.”
– SIMONE NORRIE