THE northern Australian cropping belt is set for a flood of chickpeas, following a strong rally in prices that has pushed current quotes for desi type chickpeas to over $840 a tonne delivered to upcountry packers in Queensland and NSW.
The boom has seen values rise by up to $150 a tonne in the past month, as the trade tries to meet demand from India, where crops were adversely impacted by heavy rain leading into harvest through March and April, with Indian production set to fall by as much as 25 per cent on expectations.
And growers are seeking to cash in on the price rise, with Pulse Australia estimating a 27pc year-on-year growth in Australian desi chickpea plantings.
Wayne Newton, president of the grains section of Queensland's AgForce, said many farmers in that State had received good autumn rainfall that would store moisture in the profile and were keen to plant chickpeas.
“With prices where they are and the moisture in the profile, farmers are upbeat about the prospects of chickpeas.
“The major limitations will be accessing seed and herbicides with all the additional demand.”
Grower confidence
Gordon Cumming, Pulse Australia national development manager, said the price rise was likely to have a big impact from north central NSW and further north.
“There are still some growers keen to plant without enough moisture, but in large parts of northern NSW and southern Queensland there is good moisture.”
Mr Cumming said Pulse Australia estimates were for a desi chickpea plant of 550,000 hectares, up from 430,000ha last year and an average of 480,000ha.
In terms of production, he said based on average season, production would be between 750,000 and 800,000 tonnes.
“The inner Darling Downs in particular is very confident, there are guys who are even talking about double cropping chickpeas after harvesting the summer crop of cotton or sorghum.”
He said the ideal planting window was over the last two weeks of May into the first fortnight of June, but added growers could go later.
“At $800/t plus, growers are going to think it is worth a go.”
However, equally, he said it would be a boost to rotations for these farmers.
“Many are coming out of pretty heavy cereal phases and everyone knows about the rotational advantages of pulses.”
Mary Raynes, Pulse Australia southern regional manager, said desi chickpea prices were currently at their highest levels since 2012.
“The rain damage in India has created a short in the market, and buyers are certainly active at present, we saw values go up by $100/t in a single week.”
Forward contracts
The issue for Australian growers is taking advantage of new crop values now when crop is only just planted.
Mr Newton said growers were taking advantage of forward hectare-based contracts to reduce production risk but still get access to the prices.
Graintrend director Sanjiv Dubey said he believed up to 350,000 tonnes of new crop Australian chickpeas were already priced, in a mix between straight forward contracts and hectare-based options.
He said chickpea values, which he says have risen by $150-$160/t in the past month, will be under pressure when new crop Canadian and Black Sea yellow peas come on line later in the year.
“There is some substitutability between yellow peas and chickpeas, particularly for use as besan (pulse, generally chickpea, flour).
“With yellow pea prices at $380/t or so, you can see some Indian buyers will be tempted to swap.”
However, Mr Dubey said there was only limited downside in the market for Australia’s upcoming crop.
“Chickpeas are very much going to be in demand.”
Mr Cumming agreed.
“I think there may well be some downside from these current, extremely high, prices, but even with a fall, growers are likely to have a solid price come harvest.”
Mr Dubey said the timing of the price rise was ideal for Australian growers.
“It gives them the chance to participate in the rally by planting more of the crop, coming in time for them to organise seed and inputs before planting.”
He said he thought the Pulse Australia tonnage estimate could even prove conservative if conditions remain reasonable.
“We could easily a desi crop here in Australia of 850,000 tonnes, which will be an ideal lead in to the International Year of the Pulse in 2016.”