HARVEST pressure has led to a slight drop in the price of barley over the past fortnight and grain traders are expecting prices to decrease again as more grain comes onto the market.
With reduced demand from the feed market due to improving seasonal conditions in most of NSW, traders are expecting a surplus of barley along the east coast.
About 1.8 to 1.9 million tonnes of barley will be harvested across NSW, up about 20 per cent on recent years.
Harvest began in the state's north two weeks ago, with farmers at North Star, Moree and south of Goondiwindi reporting good yields.
AgVantage Commodities chief executive Steve Dalton, Narrabri, said while farmers east of the Newell Highway had reported strong yields, some croppers in western areas wouldn't strip their crops.
"The farmers 70 or 80 kilometres west of Moree won't have much of a harvest, but east of the highway there are yields of four and fives tonnes to the hectare," Mr Dalton said.
Last week, barley was fetching about $215 to $220 a tonne ex farm at Moree, down from $230/t a fortnight ago.
"That's reflecting harvest pressure, but there's also not that big demand for drought feeding compared to previous years," Mr Dalton said.
Another factor contributing to barley's fall is the widening of the wheat-barley spread.
"We're seeing a preference for wheat over barley from lot feeders," he said.
"A few months ago there was $5/t to $10/t separating barley and wheat, but that difference is now anywhere between $30/t and $35/t.
"The price has dropped to encourage lotfeeders to bring barley into the feed ration.
"In previous years we've been dragging grain from the south into southern Queensland but central and northern NSW can easily satisfy that demand."
In the southern areas barley is at $210/t to $215/t, according to ADM grain accumulation manager for southern NSW Michael Vaughan.
"We'll start seeing barley come in by the last week of October and certainly in early November," he said.
"Prices were higher last year but we had a lower supply and there was still that very high demand for drought feeding."
Mr Vaughan said southern crops were very even and growers were expecting good yields.
"With this hot dry finish the barley probably isn't suffering as much as the wheat crop because it flowers and ripens earlier.
"It may have been three weeks later than last year because we had the cold, wet winter, but the hot weather is bringing it back to a week or two later than last year."
Central West farmers with early barley crops will begin harvest this week.
Delta Ag agronomist Dave Strahorn, Dubbo, said the sea- son's hard finish had suited barley well.
"Most barley crops are already filled and they're drying down now," Mr Strahorn said.
"Some of the later wheat paddocks are struggling to fill and there will be pinched grain whereas barley was more or less done while the moisture was around and it's just finishing up now."
Mr Strahorn said growers will store as much barley as they can.
"It's good year to hang onto barley and if you can, store it until the prices are a bit better."
Summer prices will depend on the weather, Mr Dalton said.
"If we were to see reasonable rain in the coming months that would keep the market low, but there'll be more demand for feed barley as it gets dry."
Glingandra's malt matters
REGULAR in-crop rain set Stuart Burrell's barley crop up for a good finish, with harvest expected to begin in the next week or two.
Mr Burrell has grown 370 hectares of Commander with his parents Neil and Cherie at "Windsor", south of Gilgandra.
"It was planted in the first week of May on a full profile of moisture and we had a lot of in-crop rain through June and July," Mr Burrell said.
"It nearly got too wet at one point but the dry weather came around pretty quickly."
While the last decent fall was about six weeks ago, Mr Burrell said there was enough moisture in the ground to finish the crop.
"Another inch may have made a difference, but it's still going to be a good crop.
"We're looking at about four tonnes a hectare."
This was the third year the Burrells grew barley in rotation with wheat and chickpeas.
"This is best year we've had," Mr Burrell said.
"Last year we didn't get the rain to finish it off and the year before that we didn't get much rain at all."
Mr Burrell (pictured with his father Neil) said he'd wait to see what quality was like before selling.
"If it goes to malt we'll sell it, but if it's feed we might hang onto it until the prices improve," he said.
"Last year the protein was too high for malt and the seed was a bit small."
"We didn't get as much in-crop rain so we didn't have the moisture stored up at the end, but this year should be better."
