BASED on current trends, growth in NSW’s urban population is projected to dramatically outstrip regional NSW, which could be in for a bumpy ride.
A number of regional centres in western NSW could decline significantly, while some regional centres closer to the coast look set for steep growth.
Overall, the State is set to grow by two million people by 2031, according to new projections from the NSW Department of Planning.
Based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Department of Planning issued projections that the State’s population will increase from 7.2 million to 9.2m from 2011 to 2031, driven largely by an increase in the Sydney area from 4.3m to 5.8m.
Regional NSW’s population is set to grow by 10 per cent – 200,000 people – taking the population from 1.8m to 2m.
Associate professor at the University of New England Neil Argent said the trend of population stagnation or decline in west and south-west NSW was likely to continue, while established centres such as Dubbo, Bathurst or Tamworth would attract residents from Sydney.
“Looking at the nature of the economic base and thinking about the way we manage agriculture and trade policy in Australia, I can’t see anything changing dramatically,” Professor Argent said.
“The dynamics of broadacre agriculture in Australia will see it continue to search for greater efficiency, which will lead to fewer people on the land.”
Dr Argent said policy initiatives such as the government’s aim to relocate more than 1500 public sector jobs to regional areas by 2021 under the Decade of Decentralisation initiative, are unlikely to result in population shifts from urban areas to smaller towns.
“You have to put departments where there is the human capital to service the needs of the workers, otherwise you won’t hold on to those people.”
“I don’t see any government departments going into towns of 5000 people. They are going to go into towns of 25,000 to 50,000. You won’t find them moving to the Balranalds, Warrens or Coonambles of the world.”
One government initiative, the Regional Relocation Fund, was struggling to live up to expectations.
About 2500 grants have been paid since July 1, 2011, out of a target of 7000 grants across four years.
The scheme was missing its targets, enticing less than half the number of homebuyers anticipated to choose treechange over Sydney, Wollongong or Newcastle.
Associate professor at Sydney University Phil McManus said policies for remote towns in NSW needed to be targeted to avoid a proliferation of benefits in established centres.
Dr McManus said though technology had removed the purpose of some more remote towns – meaning potential for growth was unlikely – a shift in thinking about a town’s success could benefit rural towns.
“The raison d’être for some of these towns has changed and that is a hard reality to come to terms with,” he said.
“Booms often occurred 100 to 150 years ago, mainly in agricultural areas away from the city and the coast.
“In the horse and cart days, the horse could only go so far and then you would have to stop for the night. Now, in the car, you can drive for many more hours.
“Now, with electronic communication and the internet, the requirement to have services in particular locations will change again.”
He said policy should aim to make remote towns the best possible place it can be for the people that live there.
“That may be in the absence of growth, but that shouldn’t mean that places are in terminal decline.
“If they don’t grow we shouldn’t necessarily see it as a failure if the place itself has improved.
“There might be other (factors) like health or education that are better indicators of the place thriving than growth in population.”