ANY future change of National Party leadership raises a natural question about whether Barnaby Joyce will continue on as the Agriculture and Water Resources Minister or claim a new and more traditional cabinet post that offers his party broader political opportunity.
Mr Joyce has indicated a willingness to pursue opportunities associated with his new combined water and agricultural powers and implement the Coalition’s $4 billion Agricultural Competitiveness White Paper, released in mid-2015.
But recent history of National Party leadership change-overs suggests Mr Joyce would no longer hold his current portfolio.
Before the iconic John McEwen’s retirement in 1971, Doug Anthony was Primary Industries Minister – but he stepped into the Trade and Industry portfolio, after winning the then Country Party leadership.
Like Mr Anthony before him, Ian Sinclair was Primary Industries Minister from 1971 to 1972 when he held the Country Party’s deputy leadership role.
But after taking over from Mr Anthony, Mr Sinclair took on shadow ministerial roles for trade, resources and defence when he was Nationals leader in opposition to the Hawke government, from 1984 to 1989.
Tim Fischer was National party leader from 1990 to 1999 and appointed Trade Minister after the Coalition won government in 1996, under John Howard.
Mr Fischer held that post until 1999 when he was replaced as the party’s leader by John Anderson.
Mr Anderson was the Primary Industries and Energy Minister from 1996 to 1998 before he became Transport and Regional Development Minister; a role he held onto until being replaced as leader by Mark Vaile in 2005.
Mr Vaile fulfilled several front bench roles in the Howard government including Transport and Regional Development and Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry.
He was Trade Minister in 2005 when he replaced Mr Anderson as party leader - but pressure from the AWB wheat for weapons scandal saw him swap portfolios with then deputy leader Mr Truss, to take on Transport and Regional Services.
Mr Truss took over the leadership from Mr Vaile after the Coalition’s loss to Labor at the 2007 election and is currently the Infrastructure and Regional Development Minister but he’s also held the agriculture portfolio previously, from 1999 to 2005.
NSW MP Michael McCormack was appointed Assistant Minister to Mr Truss after the cabinet reshuffle last September when Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister.
Experience gained in that role and a recent profile boost would see him make an easy transition into the full cabinet post or potentially become leader if the Nationals’ party room rejects Mr Joyce’s bid.
Alternatively, if Mr Joyce was voted in as leader and chose to remain in his current cabinet post, Mr McCormack could also be appointed deputy while taking up Mr Truss’s ministerial duties.
But Mr McCormack would also handle the agricultural role capably – given the sector’s critical importance to economic activity in his Riverina electorate – if Mr Joyce became leader and was appointed the new Infrastructure and Regional Development Minister.
Rural Health Minister and NSW Senator Fiona Nash; Vocational Education and Skills Minister and NSW MP Luke Hartsuyker; and Assistant Defence Minister and Victorian MP Darren Chester are also credible and potential contenders for the agriculture job or deputy leadership.
First-term Victorian MP and former Victorian Farmers Federation President Andrew Broad would be an outside chance to replace Mr Joyce in the portfolio or NSW Parkes MP Mark Coulton who is rated highly by party insiders.
Given the demands made from the party’s eight Queensland members for greater ministerial presence, a promotion could be in the wings from that group.
But once Mr Truss and Bruce Scott step aside, with combined experience of 50-years in federal politics, the remaining candidates have less experience, compared to their NSW or Victorian counterparts.
Under the Coalition agreement, the Nationals will put forward their cabinet and ministry priorities to Mr Turnbull and history also shows those requests are generally accepted with little, if any push-back.
But ultimately, any final decisions will be in the Prime Minister’s hands.
Continuity key
NATIONAL Farmers Federation President Brent Finlay said agriculture was a long term business and certainty and continuity for the Agriculture Minister’s role to maintain oversight of the Agriculture Department were important factors to consider in any change of National party leadership and ministry portfolios.
“If there is a change in the leadership and the current Agriculture Minister was to go into the leadership role then we’d be looking at a new minister potentially - but it’s up to the party to decide how that works,” he said.
“However, we have to ensure oversight of the Department continues and they’re doing what they’re meant to be doing.
“Barnaby has been a very strong, passionate and high profile minister and that has been an advantage to the agricultural sector but it’s up to the party to decide who they appoint.”
Asked whether other leading National party members like Michael McCormack – the Assistant Minister to the Deputy-Prime Minister - Rural Health Minister Fiona Nash or Vocational Education and Skills Minister Luke Hartsukyer could replace Mr Joyce in the agriculture portfolio, Mr Finlay said they were “all very capable people”.
But he said certainty was vitally important for farmers who “just want people to get on with the jobs that they’re meant to be doing”.
“We have an incredible opportunity in front of us right now for Australian agriculture and we need to work hard to maximise this opportunity and don’t need too many distractions,” he said.
