THE National party leader’s traditional election campaign pilgrimage throughout rural and regional Australia - the Wombat Trail - needs to be renamed for 2016 thanks to Tony Windsor’s intriguing electoral challenge on Barnaby Joyce in New England.
Normally, the party leader undertakes a far-ranging, well-planned campaign jaunt transcending trains, planes and automobiles throughout regional Australia shaking hands and kissing babies or nodding politely at farmer forums and town hall meetings.
That style of rural advocacy underpinned Warren Truss’s well-planned bush bash at the 2013 federal election visiting numerous country towns and communities like others before it dating back to Doug Anthony in the 1970’s.
But the itinerary of this year’s travel schedule - thanks to the nervous uncertainty generated by the Windsor New England challenge - makes it more like a Yoyo Tour.
Mr Joyce will be kept on an extremely tight rope and won’t want to stray too far from home due to Tony Windsor’s plan to decapitate the Nationals by taking down the party’s king to reclaim his old seat.
As they say, remove the king and the kingdom is yours for the taking.
For Mr Windsor, victory over his arch rival would provide a significant statement about his form of independent rural politics.
He holds a deep personal belief in the necessity of political competition and detests complacent rural members and those who vote for them unconditionally, election-after-election.
But whether the one-time independent MP wins New England or not is merely incidental and a bonus to his overall strategy.
The rat-cunning, no-nonsense bush politician and farmer has already claimed a significant victory just by entering this year’s election race and restricting Mr Joyce’s freedom to roam the nation campaigning, at leisure.
Competition in New England has effectively chained the Nationals’ leader to his electoral backyard during the marathon election season; keeping one eye on the nation’s affairs and the other firmly on grass-roots events unfolding in his backyard.
The Nationals have 21 members in federal parliament currently, with some living on shaky ground who could utilise the leader’s profile and monumental media pull to bolster their campaign fortunes in seats like Capricornia, Page, Dawson and Flynn.
The leader’s mega-profile could also assist the party’s chances of claiming seats like Murray and Indi in regional Victoria, Lingiari in the NT, O’Connor in WA, Kennedy in Queensland and Richmond in NSW.
Like the casting of a yoyo, Mr Joyce will have some room to stretch out and extended his political leash to beguile the media and spin yarns to voters in those seats or attend party fund raisers to help seduce the campaign.
To prevent Mr Windsor tying him up in political knots, the Agriculture Minister will venture out cautiously into broader campaign territory early in the week - flanked by senior party members and ministers like deputy-leader Fiona Nash and Darren Chester.
But at the first sign of danger, he will be yanked home faster than a naughty schoolboy from camp to counteract any Windsor shenanigans and protect his political future.
A preliminary tour schedule shows Mr Joyce will spend more time in his electorate later in the week and at weekends, where experts say the local political contest is shaping up to be tighter than Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey’s first federal budget.
It remains to be seen whether Mr Windsor’s challenge achieves the ultimate goal of generating another hung parliament or costing the National party vital seats and a chance to expand.
However, his niggling presence has already dulled Mr Joyce’s ability to capture political interest and seize media opportunities money just can’t buy like he did by ordering the export of Johnny Depp’s dogs to raise biosecurity awareness.
At his post-budget breakfast speech last week, the Nationals leader referred to the method underpinning his madness and why its represents such a powerful political tool that will be somewhat diminished, at the 2016 poll.
“We have an international biosecurity system, with an awareness campaign that has more hits than Don Bradman, thanks to the reluctant assistance of a rather famous Hollywood couple and their two miniature dogs,” Mr Joyce said.
“And we are driving the further roll-out of biosecurity controls such as the K5 Calicivirus and the planned roll-out of the Carp Herpes virus to control European Carp.
“Many may snigger at the style and approach but I have always preferred to be judged by the outcomes.
“It is sometimes hard to get oxygen but I borrow from Paul Keating that at times I reserve the right to ‘throw the switch to vaudeville’.”
New England odds from Sportsbet.com.au
$1.50 Barnaby Joyce
$2.25 Tony Windsor
$21 Labor
$24 Greens
$21 Any other
Six in 10 bets are on Tony Windsor to win New England - but the big money is headed Barnaby Joyce’s way with 70pc of the hold. One punter has staked $1500 on Joyce to win. The biggest bet on Windsor has been $250.
Market on Tony Windsor’s Primary Vote:
$21 0-9.99pc
$7.50 10-19.99pc
$6.00 20-29.99pc
$2.70 30-39.99pc
$3.00 40-49.99pc
$5.00 50pc or more
Tony Windsor securing a primary vote of 30-39.99pc is the best backed with 70pc of the money predicting this outcome. 25pc of punters are tipping Windsor to get 40-49.99pc of the primary vote, which should be enough to take easily take the seat after preferences.
Lingiari
$1.67 Labor (Warren Snowden)
$2.20 Coalition
$21 Greens
$26 Any other
O’Connor
$1.01 Coalition (Liberal MP Rick Wilson, challenged by WA Nationals)
$16 Labor
$16 Any other
$26 Greens
Capricornia
$1.35 Labor
$3.00 Coalition (Nationals MP Michelle Landry)
$26 Greens
$26 Any other
Dawson
$1.20 Coalition (Nationals MP George Christensen)
$4.00 Labor
$26 Greens
$26 Any other
Page
$1.75 Coalition (Nationals MP Kevin Hogan)
$2.30 Labor
$11 Greens
$26 Any other
Indi
$1.25 Cathy McGowan (Independent MP)
$5.00 The Nationals
$7.50 Liberals
$16 Labor
$51 Greens
Murray (Liberal Sharman Stone retiring)
$1.75 Nationals
$2.00 Liberals
$21 Labor
$26 Greens
$16 Any other
Kennedy
$1.20 Bob Katter (Independent MP)
$4.25 Coalition
$21 Labor
$26 Greens
Flynn
$1.30 Coalition (Nationals MP Ken O'Dowd)
$3.30 Labor
$34 Greens
$16 Any other
Richmond
$1.45 Labor (MP Justine Elliot)
$4.50 Coalition
$5.00 Greens
$26 Any other