I FIND myself clutching at straws today to find something positive to talk about in the grain and oilseed markets other than weather locally.
The novelty is definitely starting to wear thin across many parts of central and southern NSW especially as record monthly totals continue to accumulate through June and now July.
Many growers I have spoken to recently about the rain have said they would generally never wish a run of dry weather, however that’s what is needed now.
The old saying “you’re only ever six weeks away from a good or bad season” rings true in most minds.
Some stories have been shared around of as much as 20 to 30 per cent losses of crop post the most recent rain event and also country that was intended to be planted which due to the weather has not seen a sowing rig since the end of May and wont until next year.
Markets recorded some action late last week with production and quality issues in the EU starting to get plenty of attention from the trade.
The problem has also affected German production and quality.
Germany has been a force in recent years in the milling wheat export scene, so any flags here are important to the overall world supply and demand puzzle.
On the flipside to this, Russian and Ukrainian yields are better than expected, so what has been taken from the EU has been given back by the Black Sea to some extent.
The market is calling Russian wheat production in the range of an all-time record by more than 10pc.
So as far as supply is concerned globally, basically the Black Seas will need to export more of the world’s needs based on today’s values.
Looking at current values, Australia’s new crop wheat, particularly in the Newcastle and Port Kembla zones, is not attractive on flat price levels but new crop Basis levels for these zones is relatively strong.
Port zone values are sitting around $245 a tonne track with about $25/t of positive basis making up this price.
With a potentially big Aussie wheat crop coming and this been matched by most wheat producing countries around the globe, you could assume that the only shining light of today’s wheat price locally will disappear as we get closer to harvest.