A JULY Pulse Australia forecast for this year’s chickpea harvest has copped criticism and been blamed for a slump in prices.
NSW Farmers grains committee chairwoman Rebecca Reardon said she disagreed with Pulse Australia's forecasts.
“Pulses Australia estimated desi chickpeas area at 1.073 million hectares, an 86 per cent increase on its June estimate,” she said.
“(It) also estimated desi chickpea production at 1.72 million tonnes, yielding on average 1.6mt/ha, a 72 per cent increase in production from its June estimate and a 77pc increase on last year.”
She said growers, agronomists and traders were all questioning the estimate.
"The yield estimates are very aggressive. Many believe they are just not reflective of where we are today,” she said.
Pulse Australia chief executive Nick Goddard said the company had people in the field and speaking with companies selling inoculant to determine how much chickpea had been planted.
He said the company's June report had been based on favourable rains and the July 21 report had taken into account area planted to chickpeas based on intelligence gathered in July's first few weeks.
"Of course there's been a lot of changes since then, flooding has resulted in some crop losses and the wet weather to a greater entrenchment of disease and that's been on the downside," Mr Goddard said. “Chickpeas are a global commodity. India has suffered a lot in the last two years and Australian growers have benefited.
“Demand from India has driven global prices up," he said.
"But with prices so high other countries have also come in (to service demand), particularly Russia and east Africa.” He said with usual monsoon rains on the subcontinent, the Indian forecast now looked bullish its domestic supply would return.
He estimated prices of $600 to $700/t.
Agronomist John Feulling, on the inner Darling Downs, said the July Pulse forecast, this far out from harvest, had been “pretty ridiculous”.
He said about 60 per cent of the current crop had been planted in the second half of August.
"And a lot was planted on very little moisture," he said.
“When the price hit $1000/t it prompted a lot of late planting, but a lot of crop was planted on 100-150mm of soil moisture and you won't go far on that."
Grains Research and Development Corporation grower services manager Sharon O'Keefe said there were probably above average plantings of chickpeas but no-one could be confident of a yield forecast at this time of the season.
