If you have a sweet tooth for sugary drinks or a fondness for fatty foods and snacks, don’t expect too much sympathy from the tax man or the tax-funded healthcare system in the next 10 to 20 years.
The same warning also applies to those in the business of growing or processing food products which are less likely to help your health, says agribusiness boss with tax and business advisory giant KPMG, Ian Proudfoot.
His observations on the health costs of food and the affordability challenges ahead for traditional western diets include warning bells for a host of mainstream agribusiness industries from cane growing to meat and potatoes.
“Government’s can’t afford to keep putting huge resources towards making people better - especially when many health issues relate to largely to self-inflicted dietary problems,” said New Zealand-based Mr Proudfoot.
“The focus is already switching to making preventative healthcare a priority.
“Governments worldwide will make it increasingly challenging to eat sugar, fat or foods and beverages which are generally considered responsible for preventable health problems like diabetes, heart disease and obesity.”
A clear indicator of the sort of crackdowns on the horizon was this year’s UK government decision to tax soft drinks containing more than five per cent sugar.
The levy is likely to add about 50 cents to the price of canned drinks with the highest sugar content.
It will raise about $500 million in extra government revenue annually, most of which has been promised to promote exercise and health education in schools.
In Australia, The Greens want a 20pc levy (about 30c a can) on sugar-sweetened drinks, which the party claims would drive down soft drink consumption by 12pc, potentially reducing obesity rates by more than 1pc.
In the UK a third of all children are obese or overweight when they reach secondary school, while about a quarter of Australian school students fall into the same category and are already burdening government health services.
Those costs are compounded by the expense of treating about 85pc of people aged over 60 in developed economies for at least one chronic illness - typically diabetes, heart disease and osteoporosis.
Mr Proudfoot said Canberra already taxed alcohol and tobacco, while sponsorship bans applied to certain products to discourage unhealthy lifestyles.
It was almost inevitable food taxes would steadily expand as financially-stretched governments attempted to restrain unhealthy consumption habits.
“The warning signs apply to more than just the sugar industry,” he said.
“The grain and dairy sectors should recognise how much of their production goes towards making sugary or fat-rich biscuits, doughnuts, desserts, chocolate, or other products which might be on the regulatory radar too.”
However, the future still looked generally optimistic for graingrowers, particularly those producing protein-rich pulses or diversifying into complementary nutritionally- and medicinally-useful crops.
Mr Proudfoot tips a big swing to more plant-based ingredients in our diet, including seaweed and native plants with nutrition attributes which are still barely recognised today.
That potentially means we will be tucking into fewer traditional meat-based meals, too - unless you can afford to pay pricey premiums for beef, lamb and other animal protein.
Expect the burgers, steaks, sausages and stir fries of the future to be made primarily from “cultured” meat ingredients grown in a factory.
“In 20 years time it’s likely tissue cultured beef will be a standard choice in our supermarkets,” said Mr Proudfoot, in Australia to address Australia-Israel Chamber of Commerce’s AgTech Summit.
He noted the European scientists behind the laboratory-made meat breakthroughs of the past two years now believed the world’s beef needs could be satisfied with a herd of just 20,000 cattle by 2040.
“I don’t think the size of the Australian herd or sheep flock is likely to shrink significantly any time soon, but the number of producers could decline,” he said.
“We must produce more food, more affordably, and we don’t have endless resources to utilise.
“The pressures around farm production costs and environmental responsibility are already driving more investment in technology to lift efficiency.”
About $4.2 billion in venture capital was now being invested annually in high technology food production worldwide - projects ranging from algae farming for food and fuel, to improving irrigation and effluent recycling efficiency, and robotic crop harvesting.
Insects and new aquatic foods were also likely provide to the nutritional ingredients needed to supplement our meals with prescriptive vitamins, protein and minerals ingredients.
Those meal nutrition boosters - as pastes, powders and sauces - would likely vary in quantity and ingredient type depending on the age and health of the consumer, just as many pet foods have already become age prescriptive.
“I personally believe the opportunities available from Australian flora and fauna will be endless,” Mr Proudfoot said.
“Nobody could have imagined the value of Manuka honey’s antibacterial properties and immunity system benefits 20 years ago - now it retails for multiple times more than conventional honey.”
Mr Proudfoot, who heads KPMG’s agribusiness services in 35 countries, improved supply chain technology would also help Australian livestock producers deliver fresher, healthier, more traceable protein to an increasingly fastidious consumer.
Export market trends already showed how shoppers overseas were reassured by the prospect of buying foods with a high quality, clean production story behind them.
These were stories Australia and NZ needed to become exceptionally good at telling to ensure they could capture the market premiums they required to cover their rising production costs.
