IT WAS only two years ago that southern NSW experienced one of the earliest starts to harvest on record.
This year is on track to be almost the polar opposite as growers prepare for one of their latest harvests ever.
Polar is also an apt word to describe the weather, as cold conditions have continued to dominate late into October.
Crops have been maturing slowly in these cool conditions but with ample moisture available, it was potentially a season where plants could, in theory at least, have approached their maximum yield potential.
Unfortunately, this prospect has now become unlikely across most of the region due to a raft of issues such as flooding, water-logging, disease and the frequent overcast conditions limiting the amount of sunlight reaching the crop canopy.
No doubt overall production will still be plentiful, but expect to see a lot of variation between districts and even between neighbours.
This week has seen the first windrowers start rolling west of the Newell Highway around areas like Condobolin, Lake Cargelligo and West Wyalong.
Headers should follow in 10 to 14 days and from there harvest will be underway.
Unlike the short and sharp harvests of recent times, expectations are for a slow slog this season with it taking at least two months to get this crop in the bin.
Logistical and operational headaches from the lingering effects of a very wet growing season will make sure of that.
The other headache growers continue to wrestle with is how to maximise returns in this relatively low priced environment.
Canola is a happy exception with bids currently above $540 a tonne Port Kembla track, a level which provides a profitable return and in turn makes for an easier decision to sell once production is assured.
The recent price improvement has been mainly driven by weather issues in Canada, where rain and snow are causing questions to be asked on if/when the remaining 20 per cent of the crop can be harvested.
Cereals are a different story with wheat and barley trading around their lowest levels in a decade on both the domestic and international markets.
A small jump seen recently in the international futures price was offset by a corresponding drop in local basis, leaving the Australian grower to watch local Australian Premium White (APW1) bids remain essentially unchanged and hovering about $230/t Port Kembla track.
With local prices resisting any potential reason to rally, this is an indication of a market that is likely to continue trading sideways in the short term.
On the plus side it also points to some support at current pricing levels, but the question is whether this can be maintained once harvest kicks off and selling pressure escalates.
