THE Nationals’ Orange by-election candidate Scott Barrett, who on Tuesday evening trailed Shooters, Fishers and Farmers candidate Philip Donato by 79 votes (two party preferred), has copped the brunt of the fall-out from a governing party out of touch with its constituency.
But this is bigger than just the current government not listening. Labor got the boot from state government in 2011 in a landslide victory to the Coalition – the biggest defeat since the Second World War. Yet, the Coalition has continually failed to capitilise.
On Saturday, the Nats had the biggest swing against it’s seen – and in a seat which it (or the Country Party) has held since 1947 to boot.
Voters didn’t just swap sides to the traditionally obvious alternative of Labor (Country Labor took about 20 per cent of the first preference vote) – independent Scott Munro captured about 9pc and Shooters and Fishers about 30pc. Add 6.5pc to independent Kevin Duffy and nearly half the primary vote has gone to minor parties.
Voters are not happy with big party politics and Shooters and Fishers capitilised by playing up the Coalition’s mistakes. Throw in all the money the Nats promised during the campaign and Shooters were able to also play up how the incumbent party was trying to buy votes, rather than listen.
The Nationals knew they were in trouble, but it was too late. They’ve since moved quickly to change leaders, but that’s only the beginning of the solution. Rural voters are realising, while only small in number, they have a lot of voting power – something they’ve not previously used to their advantage. If the Nats don’t show the Liberals, and voters, how much sway they can have, and if they don’t shake off that “junior partner in the Coalition” crown they’ve comfortably worn for so long, both the Nats and the Liberal party will continue to bleed.
The Nats need to treat every seat like it’s marginal because opponents, like the Shooters, have woken up to the fact there are votes to be won. Greyhounds and council amalgamations were simply the catalyst for voters to show they’ve had enough. We’ve seen now the void the Nats have created can be filled. Whether its re-captured by the Nats will depend on if they’ve learned their lesson and how they demonstrate this under new leadership. Either way, the ball has landed in regional NSW’s court and voters have shown what can happen when they let rip with a power play.