A SIGNIFICANT rain event in many parts of the state in the past week has reinforced our favoured scenario that the coming season will end up with at least close to average rainfall over most of NSW although these rainfalls levels will be reached by the occasional significant event.
Consequently variability will be a feature of the weather and this means even within a local area some places could have up to double their average over a period of a month while nearby centres might receive just 50 per cent of their average.
During the coming three to four months, however, this should average out a little.
The Pacific Basin remains in a neutral pattern although some indicators such as sea surface temperature anomalies would indicate a weak La Nina is in place while other indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index are staying well within the neutral range.
Temperatures around the rest of summer will average out a little above normal and again show some variability.
The longer heatwaves (three to four days of five degree or more above average temperatures) are expected to be less frequent than the record breaking levels experienced last summer.
The “heat engine” of Australia – the north west of the continent, is experiencing temperatures about five degrees lower than at this time last year and although air from that source will occasional drift into the south-eastern states, it will not be as hot as last year.
Above average sea surface temperatures will assist in keeping overnight minimum temperature one to two degrees warmer than normal in most of the state.
The longer term outlook is for a neutral pattern to become strongly established by late summer and autumn.
This pattern is favoured to persist for much of the year and the chances of an El Nino returning in the foreseeable future remain quite low.
With sea surface temperatures around continental Australia also favoured to remain a little warmer than normal, slightly above average temperatures can be
expected through most of 2017.
Whatever the weather, I trust the elements will be kind to you in the coming season and hope that Christmas brings peace and contentment.