As Bill Tomlinson and his dog nudged another 100 lambs towards the yards on Monday afternoon he expressed confidence in the market and said it might even get better yet.
“It’s very strong, probably as strong as it’s ever been at this time of year,” said the Trundle producer.
“We’re getting $6 a kilo and it could even go to $7 or $8, so things are pretty good.”
After his next sale Mr Tomlinson will have another 600 lambs to sell. He sells about 100 a month, and is running them on lucerne at the moment, but reckons it’s drying off pretty quick and a drop of rain would really help.
At this stage he said he would probably draft off about 200 for finishing on grain. He grows oats and with wheat prices the way they are wouldn’t be fazed buying some. Mr Tomlinson is increasing his flock, he bought ewes at about $226 or $228 a head two weeks ago at the Forbes special sale, a fair indicator of his faith in the market.
“It’s picked up a lot on the last 18 months to two years, I’m looking forward to the next six to 12 months.
“It’s a good market to be in if you’re already in it, but you wouldn’t want to be starting out,” he said.
GJ Hulm agent Tim Pattison, Wagga Wagga, has been watching yardings increase by the week.
He said the week before last there had been 16,000, last week 26,000 and 30,000-plus were expected for tomorrow. “I think the prices have surprised a few people, the way they are at the moment.
“Producers are getting value for the work they have put in, it’s trending very nicely for them, getting more than $200 for very heavy lambs in January.”
Mr Pattison said prices would probably begin to plateau in March, perhaps earlier, but there wouldn’t be a slump. He said producers were looking to get their lambs on the market now, to take advantage of the prices, but feeder lambs would soon come onto the market, which would ease the current shortage of heavy lambs.
Most farmers would be looking to consolidate their position in the market, he said, but agreed with Mr Tomlinson, saying anyone trying to get in would need a big cheque book.
Mr Pattison said he thought prices would hold at about $6/kg, adding that any further hike would probably be kept in check by increasing supply in coming weeks.
The Land spoke with agents across the state early this week and general consensus was that a good season and consistent supply of lambs was serving producers well, with prices holding firm.
A steady market is on the cards for the time being.
Simon Burke, of Burke and Smyth Stock and Station Agents, Tamworth, said Monday’s yarding had been strong, made up of about 4000 store and finished older lambs.
He said prices topped out at about $170 for lambs weighing 25 kilograms or more. Small store lambs ranged from about $75 “for real little squeakers”, to $110.
It’s very strong, probably as strong as it’s ever been at this time of year.
- Bill Tomlinson on the state of the lamb market
He said some consistent lines of 25kg lambs made $92.50. Good store lambs coming out of New England, as they usually did at this time of year, were making $85 to $110.
Mr Burke said he thought supply would remain solid for the next four to five months.
“I certainly don’t think there will be any great oversupply, but then there’ll be no real shortage either.”
And for that reason Mr Burke was confident prices would hold firm.
“We’re in a happy medium, in this area at least,” he said.
Greg Moncrieff at Moncrieff Livestock and Property, Condobolin, said there had been consistent supply of lambs for the past couple of months.
“It’s always hard to predict numbers, but it’s been very good,” he said.
“The move (by producers) into meat lambs has contributed to more consistent supply and we’ve had four or five pretty handy seasons, so numbers have built up a bit.
“It’s a case of running less but getting more,” he said of current prices being fetched at market.
