I AM beginning to wonder if it has actually rained anywhere in the world throughout the past month, with recent headlines dominated by talk about just how dry the major cropping regions are both here and abroad.
The market has responded to all this weather chatter by shooting upwards, a reassuring sign after the past 12 months when people were worried if a catalyst to lift prices would ever come along again.
There is nothing like low prices to fix low prices, says one version of the well-worn cliché, which seems to be coming true at the moment.
It might not have happened quickly, but the historically low wheat area planted in the US, coupled with a few production questions has certainly breathed life into the grain market.
Here in the Port Kembla zone, the past month has seen bids for feed grade cereals such as F1 barley and Australian Standard White (ASW1) wheat rising $30 a tonne to $50/t (depending on location) for old crop grain on farm.
Along with the continuing flow of grain to export we have end users that had been content to buy hand to mouth now looking for enough cover to see them through to harvest.
This increased demand is coming up against growers that are more reluctant to sell while ever it remains dry, some worried they could need the grain for their own use and others just waiting to see if prices push higher still.
As with all weather markets, it is a situation that could ease quickly if rain arrived in the right locations at the right time.
New crop bids have also benefited with Australian Premium White (APW1) multigrade wheat bids reaching $280/t Port Kembla track, although few growers would be confident enough in their production prospects to forward sell today.
Canola values haven’t moved much recently, trading in a fairly limited range centred on $520/t Port Kembla, which is actually below the seasonal highs that were reached prior to planting.
Domestic production concerns are similar to those with cereals, with forecasts being wound back due to the dry start in both West Australia and South Australia.
However unlike the wheat situation, production in other big canola production regions like Canada and Europe remain relatively on track today.
As always, this picture can always change quite quickly as ably demonstrated by the very recent wheat and barley examples above.