BELOW average August rainfall through much of NSW means that dry weather concerns continue to expand across the state, threatening winter crop yields.
Farmers through large areas of north western and central western NSW have already started to turn livestock into cereal paddocks to salvage some value from withering crops.
But the dry weather concerns continue to creep east.
Farmer’s eastern fringes of the northern cropping areas are becoming desperate for rain following a mostly dry August.
That was already on the back of dry July for many cropping areas.
Cereal crops around Moree, Cropper Creek, North Star, Bellata, Narrabri and the Liverpool Plains are rapidly drying out, have only recorded 15 to 20 millimetres of rain during August which is about half of the longer-term average for the month.
Many of the northern farmers will be heading to the Ag-Quip field days at Gunnedah this week to look at the latest in machinery and “chew-the-fat” with other farmers and machinery dealers.
Dry weather will clearly be a top of conversation.
Some farmers in the north west have only received 50mm to 60mm through winter which is less than half of the normal seasonal rainfall.
Large areas of southern NSW are also desperate for rain in the coming weeks before the warmer spring temperatures hit.
Patchy rainfall in the southern half of the state have resulted in variable crop prospects.
This ranges from well above average through the southern slopes, while some of the western areas have struggled with even drier weather.
Medium term weather outlooks also looking more promising than the below average spring rainfall flagged in late July.
The most recent climate outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting near average spring rainfall across south eastern Australia.
They said parts southern Queensland is likely to see wetter than normal weather conditions in September.
However, this will be too late for most winter crops, which have struggled with the dry winter.
The abnormally dry weather over the past four months is likely to see Queensland’s wheat crop slip below one million tonnes for the first time since 2014 and it could potentially fall below 800,000 tonnes which would be the smallest in a decade.
Northern grain prices ended last week sharply lower as markets reacted to weaker global influences, despite the poor winter crop production outlook for Queensland and northern NSW.
Stockfeed wheat prices into the Darling Downs fell by four per cent or $13 a tonne to $302/t delivered after benchmark US wheat futures tumbled last week.
Stockfeed wheat bids into the Darling Downs have now fallen by $35/t from the July highs.
Feed barley and sorghum bids also pushed lower last week to $295/t and $288/t respectively.
US wheat futures fell by a further five to six per cent last week on follow through selling from the US Department of Agriculture’s bearish August world supply and demand forecast.
Unexpected large increases in the size of the Black Sea wheat crops by the US Department of Agriculture has acted as an anchor for global wheat markets over the past 10 days.
Some commercial sources are now saying Russian’s 2017 wheat crop could exceed 80 million tonnes based on the phenomenal yields that are being reported.
