SCORCHING hot winds during the past week may have been the final straw, prompting farmers to abandon hopes of late rain and instead put the livestock in to salvage some value.
Unprecedented temperatures pushing across large areas of western NSW on the weekend. Temperatures hovered in the mid to high 20’s to low 30’s across the states western cropping zone for most of last week before soaring to the high 30’s on Saturday.
Although, it was the moisture sapping hot, gustily winds that did the most damage to cereal crops that were not already abandoned. Blustery, hot winds picked up in the afternoons most days last week, peaking at 50 to 60 kilometre a hour on Saturday.
Fortunately, temperatures were cooler east of the Newell Highway in the slopes but the hot winds still sapped valuable moisture from crops.
Most of the western crops were already struggling with the dry conditions spring. The immediate impact of the heat and wind was limited in the western areas, where crops were already suffering from the dry season. Plants were already thin and spindly with limited vegetative bulk.
Farmers are very concerned how the adverse weather will impact yields. Soil moisture was already running low following a drier than normal start to spring.
Forbes has only recorded seven millimetres in the first three weeks of September, which is less than a quarter of the normal rainfall for the month, with no significant rain expected this week.
Wagga Wagga is no better, having recorded 8mm so far in September which is less than a fifth of the longer-term averages.
NSW and Victorian grain prices jumped by $12 to $20 a tonne late last week as traders factored in yield losses from the scorching, windy weather. New season Australian Premium White ended the week $12/t higher at $315/t Port Kembla, while Melbourne was $19/t higher at $280/t. Similar increases were recorded in the barley markets.
Declining Australian winter crop prospects is now starting to push international wheat and barley prices higher.
Global news agencies are reporting that some trading companies expect the Australian wheat crop will be less than 20 million tonnes, sharply lower than the US Department of Agricultures’ current projection of 22.5 million tonnes. Some are saying the crop could slip to as low as 18 million tonnes without good October rainfall to finish winter crops in south eastern Australia.
If the national wheat crop does fall below 20 million tonnes, it would be the smallest harvest since 2007-08 when drought slashed output to just 13.8 million tonnes.
Australia’s wheat exports are also expected to be sharply less than the USDA’s current projection of 18.5 million tonnes.
Some traders are saying Australia’s 2017-18 wheat exports are likely to be less than 14 million tonnes, which would also be the smallest in a decade.