RURAL and regional voters have swung towards Labor and the Greens in big numbers, but not enough to make a difference outside the North Coast.
Election analyst Ben Raue keeps the pundits informed from The Tally Room website.
He said the swings to Labor were bigger in regional areas than Sydney.
Across the state, there was an 8.8 per cent swing to Labor on first preferences, but this almost doubled in parts of regional NSW.
Mr Raue said the average swing to Labor in the 10 Hunter seats was 16.7pc, while on the nine seats in northern NSW it was 13.2pc.
"In western NSW it was about 10pc - Barwon was really interesting," he said.
In Barwon, sitting MP Kevin Humphries ultimately claimed another comfortable victory on a two candidate-preferred basis, but his primary vote dropped to less than 48pc, and if more preferences from independent Rohan Boehm flowed to Labor's Craig Ashby, the biggest electorate in NSW could have become a marginal seat.
There was also a 17pc first preference swing against Liberal MP Pru Goward in Goulburn, Mr Raue said.
It wasn't all bad news for the Coalition.
Monaro bucked the trend of Labor swings to re-elect Nationals MP John Barilaro, while there was a swing towards the Nationals in Northern Tablelands, Mr Raue said.
Mr Raue also believed the Greens' strong showing on the North Coast might not mean Nationals MPs in surrounding seats needed to worry too much about the next election.
The "big surge in the Labor vote" in Lismore and Ballina played a huge part in the strong results for the Greens, and Mr Raue was not sure this would be replicated in 2019.
"The next election for the Greens will be very different ... they will be defending and Labor might not campaign so hard there," he said.
There was also better news for the Coalition in the Upper House.
While the final results for the Upper House might not be known for weeks, Mr Raue expected the Coalition to pick up at least one extra seat, possibly two.
In either case, they would still need the support of either the Shooters and Fishers Party or Fred Nile's Christian Democrats to get legislation passed.
"The Christian Democrats will only hold the balance of power if you assume the Shooters and the Greens both vote against the government on everything."
Mr Raue said he didn't think that would necessarily be the case, especially for the Shooters and Fishers, who would be expected to support some of the government's policies, such as native vegetation reform.
"I reckon you'll see the Shooters change their tune a bit," he said.
Mr Raue said the No Land Tax Party and the Animal Justice Party were also in the mix for a seat in the Upper House.