HIGH hopes quickly turned to disappointment after last week’s forecasts turned out to be a northern fizzler.
Early last week, weather models were indicating widespread soaking rains of 25 to 50 millimetres across northern NSW.
This was widely seen as the last chance for northern farmers to seed 2018 winter crops following a parched autumn which then extended into the winter.
Farmers were upbeat about the chances of rain.
Tractors were operating around the clock ahead of the forecast rain to get crops seeded ahead of the rain.
Unfortunately, the forecasts proved extremely disappointing.
The total amount of rains came in well below the early forecasts with the heaviest of the rain slipping south.
Mungindi and Moree received 15mm for the week but most areas recorded less than 10mm with many closer to 5mm. Collarenebri, Merrywinebone, Rowena, Burren Junction, Wee Waa, Narrabri, Gunnedah and Quirindi recorded light showers totalling less than 7mm.
Central West farmers were generally happy with last week’s rain which delivered a general 20mm to 30mm of rains across most locations.
Nyngan, Trangie, Condobolin, and Lake Cargelligo all received 20mm to upwards of 30mm for the week.
Even heavier falls were seen in the Parkes, Forbes, West Wyalong and Temora areas.
Some Central West farmers took the opportunity to plant more crops.
Additional plantings are expected to be small with most agronomists viewing the July seedings as a low percentage proposition.
Crop conditions through the southern slopes are consolidating following good June rainfall.
Wagga Wagga, Temora, Young, Harden and Grenfell received 40mm to 50mm in June which is in line with longer term averages.
Most were happy to see the rain on the struggling crop that’s already in the ground.
Buyers were harder to find last week as traders went to the sidelines with the patchy rain across NSW.
Northern and southern markets were all $5 to $10 a tonne lower.
On farm prices through NSW remain well supported on trader short covering.
Traders are also saying the softer tone is also a function of interstate grain shipments that will discharge into Brisbane in July.
There is expected to be at least one ship due to discharge wheat and barley in mid this month, but some as saying there could two more ships unloading grain in late-July.
Concerns are building for next year’s canola crop with the late start to the season and the poor outlook in NSW.
New season canola prices ended the week $6/t to $10/t higher at $555/t Newcastle.
Similar increases were recorded in other states.
Global markets remain sensitive to the growing supply uncertainty following dry weather in several major exporting regions including Australia, the Black Sea and parts of Europe.
However, investors remain cautions towards the looming trade war between the US and China.
US wheat futures rallied 3.5 per cent on Friday after a respected European analyst cut its forecast of the French wheat crop by four million tonnes.
Markets then tumbled four per cent on Monday amid the lack of progress by the US and China at reaching a truce before the deadline on Friday when tariffs will be implemented.
