UNFORTUNATELY moisture remains hand to mouth at best for those in the Central West of NSW who got a drink last week. Rainfalls were disappointing for the majority.
Southern NSW fared better, with growers in the east set up to get through to spring from here.
For these growers there is still potential for average yields with average rainfall from here on in.
While domestic markets remain relatively quiet, looking overseas, the northern hemisphere wheat harvest is starting to ramp up.
The US winter wheat harvest is moving north, with over 50 per cent done and quality and yields are looking generally as expected.
The spring wheat harvest is still a few months off for the US and Canada which is on track to produce a good chunk of protein wheat.
Across to Europe, the Russian wheat harvest is 25pc complete and the canola harvest is underway across Germany and Poland.
The crop in northern Europe has struggled with lack of rain and high temperatures, resulting in crop forecasts being cut across these areas.
During the weekend, Stratégie grains gave European cash markets a spark after taking a knife to the French wheat production, reducing estimated production by four million tonnes as a result of the dry conditions in the north.
Other forecasters have cut Russian estimated production over the last month and the talk of potential cuts in Germany and Poland has traders questioning supply and demand.
The US Department of Agriculture is forecasting production from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan to drop 14pc year on year to 109 million tonnes based on an average yield of approximately 3.8 tonnes a hectare, back 8pc from 2017.
In other markets, the US corn crop is about to head into the key pollination window.
While the crop looks in relatively good condition currently, temperatures have been hot and if continued may create some issues for pollination and as such create some volatility in grain markets.
While global markets may not seem relevant to many across NSW given the current conditions, global values will definitely have an impact on cash prices here locally.
With current conditions in Australia generally priced into markets, if global cash markets lift, prices in Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria are supported, therefore putting a floor under domestic values in NSW and Queensland.
Conversely, if global values weaken this caps upside in domestic prices with grain potentially being shipped from the west coast into Queensland at cheaper values.
A positive takeaway for wheat markets is that global wheat consumption continues to grow with consumption forecast to be higher than production for the first time in five years.
With a decreasing crop in Europe, it will hopefully allow the US to start exporting more wheat to reduce its built up surplus, and as a result, eating into global wheat stocks and helping keep markets supported moving forward.