The best general rain in NSW in many months is forecast for the end of the week with some areas in northern NSW expecting up to 50mm over three days.
The weather system is heading east at the moment, and models show that the rain event is forming nicely.
A cold upper air mass accompanied by instability and then fed by moist easterlies from the Pacific Ocean is expected to bring some of the best rain totals for some areas in NSW for over a year.
Some of the most parched areas of the state including around Gunnedah and Tamworth could receive over 30mm, starting on Friday and into the weekend, with potential for more.
Weatherzone forecaster Brett Dutschke said the system was very promising but said most importantly it appeared to be slow-moving and would therefore sit on inland NSW and southern Queensland for a few days. He said the system would be fed by moist easterlies from the Pacific that would increase totals.
The rain could give farmers some hope of getting a summer forage crop planted.
Mr Dutschke said the best falls would be on the northern slopes, ranges and coast.
The totals would be near or under 10mm in most other areas of the state. Anywhere west of Lightning Ridge and in the far south-west of the state would miss out.
“The signs are pretty good for substantial rain for the northern slopes, ranges and coast,” Mr Dutschke said.
“The system is already forming in the west with a pool of cold air moving slowly across eastern Australia. It will be crossing across Western Australia in the next few days and then into South Australia and then NSW and Southern Queensland by Friday. This will be accompanied by some surface instability. It’s not a deep system but one advantage is that it is quite slow moving and will have time for moisture to stream into it from the Pacific coast. The slower it goes, the better it will be.”
Most northern ranges, slopes and the coast could get 15-30mm, with the potential for at least 50mm over a few days.
The outlook after the wet weather event looked like a return to a dry period for at least the following week.
Some towns could get their best rain since last summer or “even beyond that”.