BOM-bashing: Often the sport of choice for drought-cooked producers, who say the only thing worse than a lack of rain, is the promise of showers that never eventuate.
But the state’s Primary Industries Minister has also joined NSW Farmers delegates in a Bureau of Meteorology pile-on, declaring that NSW is having to step up to fill the gaps in ‘inaccurate’ forecasts and attempt to give farmers the answers they need.
“In 2018 we should be expecting more accurate information, the BoM modelling is so often way off the mark,” Niall Blair said. “We are even now putting in three of our own Doppler radars to try and improve things - but that is something the federal government should be doing.”
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The Bureau has copped it from a few quarters lately as NSW wilts in a record dry spell.
In its defense, a BoM spokesperson said world-leading models were in use that were increasing in sophistication and accuracy. The BoM also welcomed the chance to continue working with states to improve its observation network.
At the July annual conference of NSW farmers, delegates spoke of the heartbreak of spending thousands on sewing or spreading Urea only for forecasts to eventuate to nothing. At the more extreme end, other delegates called for the Bureau to only get paid when they got forecasts right.
Mr Blair acknowledged the high tensions amid a crippling drought often meant the BoM was in the firing line.
“But we’re in a high stakes-game. If you’re in the business of providing this service you’ve got to accept that people have a lot riding on it and will get frustrated if they’ve made a decision that goes against what has been said.”
Mr Blair said no locations had been locked in for the new Doppler Radars announced at the state budget, and added the $25m investment was still ‘some time away’ from being shovel-ready.
But the Broken Hill-based president of the Pastoralists’ Association of West Darling, Lachlan Gall, said a missive from Barwon MP Kevin Humphries indicated the radars were proposed for Peak Hill, Brewarrina and Ivanhoe. Mr Gall said that still left a huge gap in the Far West.
“We’d been lobbying for a radar between Broken Hill and Tibooburra since early 2017, so we’re a little browned off,” he said. “It’s $25m in total for the radars, and I’ve been told privately they’re $5m each. So it leaves me wondering if we’ll see a commitment for a fourth or fifth radar anywhere.”
Farmers ‘getting mixed messages’
On the BoM’s performance, Mr Gall agreed many farmers were getting mixed messages.
“Particularly this time last year we were seeing forecasting of an increased probability of a La Nina event,” he said. “But it didn't eventuate.”
A spokesman for the Bureau said it was important to consider the chance of rainfall forecast, and the fact that rainfall can vary significantly across small areas.
“Like the rest of the Australian community, staff at the Bureau of Meteorology hope drought-affected communities get the rainfall they need soon,” the BoM said.
“Rainfall can vary significantly across small areas, particularly when associated with showers or thunderstorms. Farms located next to each other might experience rainfall differences as weather systems move across the landscape. Because of this, our forecasts include information about the chance of any rainfall, along with a possible expected rainfall range.
“In addition, 7-day forecasts for the nearest 6km x 6km grid anywhere in Australia are available via the MetEye service on the Bureau website.”
Mr Gall said while it was important for landholders to read and understand what was being presented to them, the Bureau might want to look at how it gets its message out there.
“Farmers do need to do a better job of understanding. But the BoM and media outlets who are carrying the message need to do a better job of explaining how all the different influences on forecasts affect the reliability of any particular forecast.
Mr Gall also warned farmers of turning to ‘tea leaf readers’ on Facebook and other social media in search of alternate weather news.
“Some people swear by them - others out here say the forecasts they say are absolutely wrong.”