NSW farmers are forecast to receive some long overdue rain in the first week of October.
A slow-moving low is expected to result in a period of unsettled weather across most of the state’s cropping areas which could result in some beneficial heavy rain.
Unfortunately, the forecast rain will be too late for most of the NSW winter grain harvest where crops in most areas have already surrendered to the drought.
The driest January to August since 1965 has taken a heavy toll on the state’s grain crop, which is expected to be the smallest in two decades.
The few lucky farmers who benefited from isolated, fluky storms during the growing season are expected to see sharply below average yields, but the high grain prices will help ease the financial burden of the small crop.
For others, it will be a season with little to no financial return.
A lack of September rain was the last nail in the coffin for most areas.
Scattered storms during September across the central and southwestern slopes offered a glimmer of hope for a grain harvest in these areas.
A patchy 10mm to 30mm during September through the Cowra, Grenfell, Young, Harden, Temora and Wagga areas provided some more time for crops in these parts.
Another 15mm to 30mm this week will help ensure a grain harvest in these parts.
Despite the September showers, some farmers through the central and southwestern slopes have already started cutting canola crops for hay.
Others have put livestock into cereal paddocks as they don’t expect crops to yield.
Canola prices moved sharply higher last week as more and more farmers move to cut crops for hay rather than taking them through to harvest. Others have put livestock into cereal paddocks
Wheat harvest has kicked off in Central Queensland in what’s expected to be a brief harvest.
Few crops are expected to be harvested in the northern parts of Central Queensland with better crops in the Southern Highlands.
GrainCorp said they will be opening a limited number of sites across Queensland this year because of the drought.
Grain prices consolidated last week following the sharp rally a week earlier.
APW into Newcastle and Port Kembla was steady at $480 port while Melbourne was unchanged at $450 a tonne.
On farm grain prices remain very strong as old crop supplies disappear.
Southern NSW feedlots are now being forced to draw grain from Western Australia with reports that a ship of feed barley will be discharging into Port Kembla in the coming weeks.
Western Australia grain prices, widely seen as the season’s benchmark for east coast values for 2018/19, were steady with APW1 holding at $370 a tonne Kwinana port, with ASW and F1 feed barley showing a $20 discount.
Canola prices moved sharply higher last week as more and more farmer move to cut crops for hay rather than taking them through to harvest.
Canola prices jumped by $25 to $660 into Pt Kembla and Newcastle.
Speculation is building that east coast crushers will be forced to bring canola in from Western Australia or even import supplies from Canada, as they were forced to do in 2008.
ABARES is forecasting NSW canola production of 300,000 tonnes which would be the smallest in a decade, if realised.
