China is slowing. Sell, sell! No, no, buy, buy!
The Chinese Government is stimulating the economy.
The American political system is in chaos, and now there are pipe bombs in the post.
Run away, run away! Wait, wait, come back!
The American economy is going well.
The stock market, as measured by the all-ordinaries index, is down around 10 per cent since the end of August.
The glass half-full guys say that's a correction that was needed, but it is not the start of a major sell off.
The Punter isn't buying it.
They also say that the big four banks are a big part of the index, and they have been hammered by the banking commission, rising interest rates overseas and the tighter controls on housing finance.
The implication is that the rest of the market is pretty well okay. The Punter isn't buying that one, either.
In fact he is not buying anything.
The wrinkles in his teabag suggest this "correction" is not yet over.
He is happy to say that 40 per cent of his portfolio is cash, and he is now selling his Australian Vintage (ASX code AVG) at cost.
The wine company has been a successful turnaround over the past few years, cutting costs, reducing debt, switching its emphasis to higher margin branded wine, and lifting sales.
The Punter expects the company to continue to prosper, but that doesn't mean that the shares will not go down in the meantime.
They sell for a lofty 20 times earnings, the dividend yield is only 2.8 per cent and the shares are up 30 per cent over the past 12 months.
While the share market has been falling, gold has been rising.
It rose 6 per cent last month in Aussie dollar terms, partly because our dollar is down 2.7 per cent against the greenback over the same period.
- The Punter has no financial qualifications and no links to the financial services industry. He owns shares in a number of companies featured in this column.
