MOST inland districts of NSW will experience predominantly dry and unseasonably warm weather this Easter, but what about the next few weeks?
A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will prevent any rain-bearing system from penetrating NSW between Friday and Sunday.
A weakening trough of low pressure should cause some showers in the state's south and west on Monday, although most areas won't get substantial rain from this system.
The high in the Tasman will also allow warm air from central Australia to drift over NSW, causing maximum temperatures to climb a few degrees above average for this time of year.
This weather continues a warm and dry trend that has gripped NSW for more than a year. NSW as a whole has only registered above-average rain during two out of the past 15 months.
The statewide mean temperature (combined minimums and maximums) has been warmer than the long-term average for every month since November 2016.
During this 29-month warm spell, 21 months have exceeded the long-term average by more than one degree.
This prolonged period of warm and dry weather could continue into winter.
The latest seasonal outlook issued by the Bureau of Meteorology indicates below average rainfall, and above average temperatures, are favoured for large areas of eastern Australia during the next three months.
This outlook is being influenced by an El Nino-like pattern in the Pacific Ocean, which has a chance of developing into a fully fledged El Nino in the months ahead.
Fortunately, most forecast models suggest an El Nino would be relatively weak and short-lived if one were to develop in the months ahead.
