Focus switches to new crop

Focus switches to new crop | Local Grain Wrap


Grains
Lack decent rain has ultimately dashed any hopes for sowing late season wheat or barley in northern NSW.

Lack decent rain has ultimately dashed any hopes for sowing late season wheat or barley in northern NSW.

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With old crop issues playing in the market space, we have new crop values at quite heavy discounts.

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It is still wet in the US, but most areas above Forbes in central NSW are really feeling the pinch due to lack of any decent rainfall.

This has ultimately dashed any hopes for sowing late season wheat or barley and kept things somewhat subdued. We can only hope that there is a turn around soon in the season for everybody's sake.

As for the local domestic grain market, the commercial trade buyers are now starting to focus on new season crop which will start in about two months time in Central Queensland.

Reports from that region are indicating there is plenty of potential for average to above average yields.

This in turn will ease the pressure of demand from the consumer on the Darling Downs which has already started to take hold.

Most consumers have been living hand to mouth in recent months waiting to see what happens with new crop conditions all the while being conscious of the inverse present in east coast grain markets.

As for NSW, the northern half has been reportedly sucked dry of all grain stocks and totally relying on external sources of grain for the consumer.

This will continue until a crop is produced, whether that be sorghum or a cereal crop in 2020.

While in central and southern NSW, the old crop wheat market has dropped over the last fortnight by up to $20 a tonne coming down from the highs of $405/t to be trading at $385/t delivered Griffith and $395/t into the Bathurst area.

As for the barley market, the trade has been offering a delivered price of about $385/t to $390/t, while farmer to farmer selling is still positioned around that $400/t.

It will be interesting to see over the next two to three weeks just where the market is going to position itself.

With rain in the southern half of NSW, as well as in Victoria and South Australia and with Western Australia now starting to see a season in front of itself, it is beginning to feel like the trade is more confident of producing an Aussie crop.

There is also a sense of security for consumers and this could result in hand to mouth purchasing until new crop arrives.

The consumer also is very aware that there is currently a good supply of grain in Western Australia which cannot be easily moved as there are few export markets available at the price that they can receive on the east coast.

With these current old crop issues playing in the market space, we have new crop values at quite heavy discounts.

Australian Standard White Central West is about $315/t, some $65/t less than old crop, while F1 (feed) barley is bidding at $250/t which is $130/t less than current market value.

We all know that it's a long way till it's in the bin at harvest, and a lot can change between now and then, but it shows that the consumer is fully aware of what the grain is worth to them in the current market.

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