SOUTHERN Tablelands producers are offloading store lambs in substantial numbers as their situation with water turns dire.
Meanwhile, farmers with access to bores or remaining dams, particularly in Victoria and the NSW Riverina, are taking advantage of feed wheat and barley prices 25 per cent cheaper than this time last year, and will feed to finish their lambs.
Part of the flock re-arrange is a continued offload of older ewes and crossbred sheep with many returning to a Merino core to better weather this drought.
Early this week store lamb prices were generally steady with National Livestock Reporting Service reported saleyards averaging 748 cents a kilogram (carcase weight).
The strong return for restocker lambs this season is underscored by prices more than 100c/kg higher than this time last year, although the best prices have eased somewhat in the past week or so.
The demand is certainly evident in the south of the state, where restocker lambs have averaged 759c/kg. That's in contrast to northern NSW where the average is closer to 590c/kg.
Agents are suggesting summer markets will remain much the same, buoyed by an excellent winter in southern Victoria with large numbers of finished lambs being turned off in those districts right now.
"It's their turn to shine," said Jarrod Slattery, Landmark Wagga Wagga.
But it is an opposite situation in the Southern Tablelands, with producers there contributing to a substantial boost in store lambs being trucked to the Wagga Wagga saleyards each week.
"They're coming from producers in the Monaro and Southern Tablelands," reported Mr Slattery. "They virtually didn't have a spring there, and also there's reports of very ordinary water supplies."
"Lambs are being sent to the marketplace in a hurry, it's been regretful and forced selling. There's a lot of lambs coming in from 20kg to 30kg (liveweight), they're virtually just weaned off mum and sent.
"From what I know there's going to be a huge number again in Wagga this Thursday. I'd be guessing 50 per cent of the Wagga lamb yarding would be these eastern lambs coming out of the areas that are doing it pretty tough.
"We're the ones buying them, around Wagga, along with a few southern agents, along the river, Corowa, Yarrawonga, Albury."
Mr Slattery bought 1800 lambs for a client last week which averaged $87/head and were about 25kg (lwt).
"It's not that we have an abundance of paddocks, it's that we have guys that are willing to value add with grain and hay and carry these lambs through into next year."
Angus Brown from Mecardo confirmed the trend on wheat and barley, reporting feed 25pc cheaper than this time last year.
It's also a fact backed up by grain traders such as Damian Maloney, Croker Grain at Wagga, who bought wheat off farm a year ago for $450/t and now offers $100/t less.
Ben Rix (also pictured on our cover) and his family at Silentdale, Bogan Gate, is one producer taking a punt and will finish store lambs in his drought containment paddock. He expects a marginal profit.
The crossbred lambs by Dorset rams currently weigh 35kg to 45kg. Through feeding he hopes to get them to 55kg to 60kg which could bring an extra $100 at auction in the new year, compared to selling earlier.
"I thought about offloading stores when prices were good back about six weeks ago," he said. "But I decided to hold on, shear them and finish them."
An early decision to buy new season grain and hay paid off when he locked in a deal worth $30/t less than current trending prices.
Mr Rix also pared back his flock to a Merino ewe core, sending cross bred females to sale at five years instead of six to take advantage of good prices. He will stick with White Suffolk rams until the season turns.
Sheep producers on the Northern Tablelands will also pare back store lamb numbers, with feed long gone and water the big issue for many. But lambs are too young to sell at the moment, with Blake O'Reilly, Ray White at Guyra, saying an offload is on the cards after the new year.
Roger Fletcher, Fletcher International at Dubbo, said this drought was throwing up unusual challenges, with supply likely to take a hit in the new year.
"There's no lambs north of Forbes," he said. "Things will shorten up. There are hurdles to get over."
Mr Fletcher said his company had lambs on feed all the way across to Western Australia with enough corn silage to see them through this year. Next year, however, is another story.
Meanwhile, in the online marketing sphere store crossbred lambs have had a stellar run. Tom Rookyard from AuctionsPlus Market Insights said since the inception of the spring store lamb sales in September 2015, numbers have grown from 388,000 to 937,000.
That's a 142 per cent increase and demonstrates the strong demand for this section of the market.
"It's no doubt been impacted, in part, due to the record trade weight and heavy weight lamb prices, seeing the rise of feeding lambs on-farm," Mr Rookyard said.
He said since spring this year, the Central West of NSW has topped the listings offering 88,500 lambs.
"South-west Victoria and the South West Slopes and Plains of NSW follow up in second and third place with 77,800 and 66,800 respectively," Mr Rookyard said.
"The Riverina of NSW has seen the largest drop in offerings from spring 2018 to 2019, offering 31,000 lambs, (29,700 less than last year)."
Season is a major factor.
"The Riverina and Victoria as a state has dominated this year's buying, purchasing 97,000 and 144,000 lambs each."