The Punter's portfolio, heavily weighted towards agricultural stocks, was always going to be hit by the drought and bushfires.
He suspects that the relative lack of impact so far merely reflects the fact that in many cases it is too early to assess the damage.
However, some companies have made preliminary estimates, including Elders (ASX code ELD), Australian Vintage (AVG) and two of the Punter's current holdings, Costa Group (CGC) and Kangaroo Island Plantation Timbers (KPT).
For some, it could have been much worse. For KPT, it probably is. The company requested trading halts in its shares three times in December because of the Kangaroo Island bushfires. The shares are now suspended. In a statement on January 8, it said it was clear that 90 per cent of the island's plantations had been fire affected.
The Dunns Road fire in NSW has hit the Tumbarumba berry farm leased by the Costa Group (CGC), damaging sheds and equipment but apparently has not had a material impact on the plants.
Fire has potentially wiped out a third of wine production in the Adelaide Hills. Only one of AVG's three vineyards in the area was affected, with a loss of perhaps 200 tonnes of grapes.
Elders (ELD) has so far escaped unscathed and expects its full year results overall to be unchanged. Meanwhile, it is offering interest free periods and extended repayment terms to severely affected clients.
The Punter, meanwhile, is dumping Abundant Produce (ABT). It is trying to sell its seeds business and concentrate on producing lotions and gels for a wide range of skin ailments. The Punter fears it is spreading itself too thinly in a crowded market.
He is also selling Wellard (WLD) while he is still showing a profit. Drought and fire won't make it easy to source cheap cattle for live export when times improve.
- The Punter has no financial qualifications and no links to the financial services industry. He owns shares in a number of companies featured in this column.