The Bureau of Meteorology's updated forecast released last week remains in favour of the East Coast cropping belt experiencing slightly higher than average rainfall from June to August.
Although the BoM's overall rainfall outlook as a percentage has declined, the forecast is very positive for the cropping season.
This is in addition to much of the South Australian, Victorian, and New South Wales grain growing belts already being well positioned with close-to-full subsoil moisture profiles.
While the majority of the East Coast is looking fantastic, the opposite can be said for Western Australia and Queensland, where those states are yet to experience a seasonal reprieve since a deluge in January-February in some parts.
These states remain on a weather watch, where grain production cuts are expected if June rainfall disappoints.
At present, the dominant climate drivers are the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) - which have begun to cool and, in turn, affect the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
The IOD has by no means turned positive, but it has begun to strengthen - suggesting a La Nina season is becoming less likely.
If the trend of cooler SSTs continues, the outlook is expected to firm for an average to slightly above average winter rainfall accumulation.
Global grains markets continue to remain a 'muddled mess' of currency, demand, execution, a portion of weather and all things China.
Overseas, canola markets are lacking excitement, with export bids having been lackluster and the European benchmark trading a relatively tight range on small volume.
Canadian rapeseed supplies are expected to tighten further than initially forecast, which may add a bullish input to the market.
On the flipside, COVID-19 has seen demand for oil decline due to lower bio-diesel, ethanol and consumer consumption.
Wheat markets continue to trade around the weather, with speculation regarding the current conditions through the northern hemisphere dominating headlines as harvest nears.
The European crop appears challenged lately due to lack of rain and above average temperatures hindering crop prospects.
Meanwhile, rain across the Black Sea has been suggested as 'too little too late' and has led to a reduction in crop estimates to below 80 million tonnes - which is about five million tonnes below levels of a month ago.
Also worth a mention is the recent narrative of the idea that Russia wants to build stock reserves of six million tonnes.
The Australian dollar is proving to be a challenge, trending higher and - at the time of writing earlier this week - breaching US67 cents. This is the highest level it has traded since mid-February this year.
With the majority of sowing completed in NSW, farmers there now have time to give more thought to their marketing programs for the upcoming harvest.
At current values (dare I say it), canola is shaping-up as the best value.
At a Port Kembla track basis, the market is currently bid 1.93 times that of wheat and 2.52 times that of barley.
With global demand for oilseeds remaining clouded and the majority of the national crop emerging from a full profile of moisture coinciding with decile 9 prices, maybe it is time to consider getting some runs-on-the-board.
