PREDICTED softer lamb prices in spring and suckers hitting the market about three weeks earlier than normal have meant graziers have had to reassess their marketing plans heading into the warmer weather.
Lamb prices have slowed to a simmer in the past three weeks with trade weights averaging just under 700 cents a kilogram (carcase weight) across many NSW centres.
Agents have predicted the traditional spike in lamb prices may not happen this year, suggesting the uncertainty with Australia's export markets due to COVID-19 and a solid supply of excellent pasture-finished lambs will put pressure on prices.
Forbes Livestock and Agency Company agent Tim Mackay said many of the lambs in the Forbes district were hitting the saleyards on average three weeks earlier than past years.
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"We are having a great season here and the winter has not been as severe either," Mr Mackay said.
That means the feed has been plentiful and he said the lambs had grown out quicker than recent years.
"Last year many of the lambs were hitting the market after being grain fed due to the drought," he said.
"This year they are being finished on pasture and crops and the quality has been top notch. The way things are going, it won't be worth holding lambs until they are heavy export weights.
"For some, it may be better to sell sooner rather than later as the market's not going to get any dearer."
John Sullivan, JJ Dresser and Company, Woodstock, said the lambs in the Cowra and Woodstock regions were running about three to four weeks earlier this year.
"Woodstock Show is normally the first week of September and that's when we would start to see the sucker lambs really coming on, but they're already ready to be turned off now," he said.
"Producers who had contracts have been getting the lambs in and finding some are a bit heavier and those are going to the saleyards."
Mr Sullivan said the August contracts were at about 800c/kg and with the market now averaging just under 700c/kg in the saleyards, the contracts look pretty good.
"Back a bit, the 800c/kg contract didn't look exceptional, but those guys that locked in and are turning off lambs now are doing well," he said.
The Thomas family from Wonthaggi and Rockleigh, The Rock, are taking the money now rather than wait to turn off a heavier lamb.
They sold 424 second-cross suckers this week, with the tops, tipping the scales at 26kg to 27kg (carcase weight), heading for the Wagga Wagga saleyards.
Mark Thomas, who farms with his wife, Leanne, and sons, Chris and Brett, said given the uncertainty surrounding the lamb market, he was happy to be selling the March-drop lambs now.
"I think there's a total state of confusion at the moment with coronavirus and everything, it's really put a spanner in the works," Mr Thomas said.
"The lambs are ready to sell now and we've locked our crops up a little earlier so we need to move them on.
"We very rarely grow our lambs out for export, we usually target new season suckers or trade lambs and we lamb in spring as well."
Mr Thomas said they expected to average $20 to $30 a head less than last year's prices, but thought given the good feed available, the lambs were heavier this year.
"These ewes and lambs have been on Kittyhawk wheat and an adjoining lucerne paddock," he said.
Southern NSW lambs are the dearest in the state right now, according to Meat and Livestock Australia figures.
Central trade lambs averaged 694c/kg, while the southern pens came in at 721c/kg. But, the higher southern price was also on the back of a $15 to $20 dip in prices at Wagga last week as domestic buyers were keen to operate at lower rates.
At the same time, the usual export buyers were at the rail but demand was considerably weaker, with some companies very selective when making purchases.
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