There is no sweeter sound than that of well-timed rain falling on a tin roof - and last week's rain across many parts of Australia played a very pleasant tune indeed.
The rain events came with big expectations from the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and were widely anticipated by the market and growers.
When the forecast lit up like a Christmas tree - with promises of meaningful rainfall across almost the entire east coast cropping area - the market reacted aggressively.
Local grain markets struggled to find a bid and, with a little bit of help from currency and offshore markets, grain prices made a hasty retreat.
New crop barley gave up about $15 per tonne over the week and wheat was closer to $20/t.
One silver lining was canola pricing, which ignored the forecast and remained relatively unchanged - holding firm on the back of tightness in global veg oil stocks.
Accelerated by the weather forecasts, growers last week stepped-up to market another portion of their coming production.
Concurrently, the domestic consumer stepped aside - largely for the same reason that the grower wants to sell it. That is, a growing confidence in supply - and the expectation that supply will probably get cheaper.
Also holding consumers back is some lingering uncertainty about the impact of coronavirus on supply chains and long-term demand for their finished product.
Given the significant inverse that remains between old and new crop, it can also be expected that they continue to limp through to harvest on a hand-to-mouth basis.
On review, perhaps the rain events in some areas were not quite as big - or maybe as far-reaching - as the various forecasts proposed, and there will be no doubt that some growers are left disappointed.
But the rain does achieve what was generally expected of it.
For the crops in South Australia, Victoria and Queensland - where conditions range between poor and excellent - this rain was always only intended to buy us time. And it has done just that for the most part.
The good crops stay good. And for the rest to maintain current status - or improve - growers are looking to the forecasts and are hopeful for another 25 millimetres this month.
For the NSW grower, the latest rain goes a long way to cementing a big crop.
From a moisture point of view, it feels like the crop is pretty well set-up and - if we dangerously assume La Nina delivers a spring rain (but not too much) - this crop is starting to look like it could get very big.
With the NSW crop poised to threaten the record books, we will continue to watch the forecasts nervously - perhaps no longer as keenly searching for signs of moisture, but with an eye on overnight temperatures and hoping to avoid damaging frosts.
It is always disappointing for a grain producer to see the market fall away.
And when it happens in such a short period of time, it can catch sellers off-guard.
They can potentially miss opportunities they thought may have been still available in one or five days' time.
But despite the $15-$20/t that disappeared alongside it, it would be a rare grower who didn't enjoy the tune played by last week's rain.
