AS DROUGHT eases across the state, Department of Primary Industries technical experts are looking with confidence at the prospects of this season's harvest.
DPI climate applications and digital agriculture specialist Dr Anthony Clark said drought conditions that had affected most of the eastern coast of Australia was on the wane and continuing to weaken.
"The NSW DPI combined drought indicator (CDI) reflects the improvement to the drought event, with just over 40 per cent of the state now considered drought affected," said Dr Clark.
"Importantly, the area in non-drought has expanded across central NSW and the Sydney basin.
"Parts of southern NSW and other districts are also well positioned to transition out of drought in the coming weeks.
"South eastern NSW in particular has experienced a rapid turnaround from very dry conditions, and when conditions warm over spring the region is positioned to recover from the drought," he said.
"We're not all out of the woods yet, though - some areas remain in the 'drought affected' category, which represents a range of conditions.
"Rain has maintained strong drought recovery in some areas, while recovery has slowed in others including north eastern NSW," said Dr Clark.
But he warned conditions in Western NSW were still very variable.
"DESPITE parts of the region moving to the 'recovering' and 'non-drought' CDI categories, conditions have been dire for so long that follow-up rain is still needed for longer-term recovery.
"Drought conditions will continue for much of that region in the short-term.
"Some areas have received their highest rainfall in several months, though some areas still need follow-up rain to support drought recovery," said Dr Clark.
THE Riverina received rainfall that has improved crop and pasture conditions for the approaching spring.
Much of the Northern cropping belt received 25-50 millimetres, which will help maintain the expected crop yield and support pasture growth as temperatures begin to warm.
The official BoM Outlook indicates a high probability of above median rainfall across NSW during September to November, and a La Nina alert has been issued.
La Nina is associated with above average rainfall for NSW and possible flooding events.
"The chance of a La Nina forming in 2020 is about 70 per cent (roughly three times the average likelihood)," said Dr Clark.
DPI pulse and oilseeds technical specialist Don McCaffrey is particularly upbeat about canola.
"This year's NSW canola crop has the best yield potential since the 2016 harvest, which was the last wet year," he said.
"Good seasonal conditions with regular rainfall have set the crop up for a high yield potential.
"While some paddocks are a bit waterlogged, drier areas of the southwest and northwest really benefited from the late July and August rainfall," said Mr McCaffrey.
Sown area is estimated at about 500,000 hectares with a view to production of 800,000 tonnes based on a state average yield of 1.6 tonnes to the hectare.
"Many crops have a yield potential of between 2 and 3t/ha and growers are currently managing crops for these targets.
"Most crops with yield potential above 2t/ha, and in areas with more reliable rainfall have already received a fungicide for the spring diseases upper canopy blackleg and/or sclerotinia," he said.
"RESPONSES to fungicide in the past have ranged from nil to 900 kilograms/ha better, but generally averages 300-400kg/ha.
"At a value of $165-$220, this decision in not difficult. Flowering started early this year in late June/early July on many early sown crops."
Mr McCaffrey said the question this season was the cost-benefit of a second fungicide, not for all crops, but for those with high yield potential and in "at risk" areas, given the first fungicide was applied quite early on many crops.
At a state estimated average yield of 1.6t/ha, and with many crops likely to yield between 2 and 3 tonnes per hectare, it's critical growers maximise what the season is offering by windrowing the crop on time, he said.
"Research conducted by NSW DPI, in partnership with CSIRO and GRDC between 2015 and 2018 showed that delaying windrowing and including seed colour change on the branches can lift canola profitability considerably.
"That research has culminated in the development of a canola windrow timing toolkit that will available this spring," said Mr McCaffrey.
"By delaying windrowing from 40 per cent to 70pc seed colour change across the whole plant, up to $277/ha extra profit can be made on a 2.5t/ha crop."
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