The positive run for the wool market ended last week, as anticipated, with a slight price correction.
The overall Australian Wool Exchange Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) eased by 40 cents a kilogram as buyers sat back and licked their wounds from the previous three weeks of sometimes frenetic activity.
The more cautious buying approach - coupled with a noticeable increase in tender, extremely high mid-break wools - saw Merino fleece values ease by between 20c/kg and 80c/kg.
Skirting types, despite relatively good demand in the superfine area, also eased by 50c/kg or more and carding wools were mixed across the different centres.
Crossbred wools fell by 20c/kg, although the broader edge of the crossbred market is finally showing some signs of life across the ditch - with the New Zealand market continuing to come off life support.
A quote from a market report exactly 12 months ago - "The wool market continues to frustrate everyone, with its crazy gyrations, and last week was no exception" - highlights that current price movements are relatively 'normal'. As much as anything can be normal in this topsy turvy world in which we live.
So, the market drop last week was relatively modest compared to the same week last year, which saw a drop of 98c/kg. This had been preceded by an increase of 67c/kg and was immediately followed by an increase of 32c/kg, for a sum total movement across the three weeks of 1c/kg.
Conditions are particularly frustrating for traders, processors and growers trying to ascertain the best time to pull the trigger and buy or sell.
Collectively, the wool growing fraternity appeared to decide that a drop of last week's magnitude - just when things were looking more promising - was too much, and passed in almost 20 per cent of the offering.
Tightening the supply in this way no doubt helps to balance the demand-supply equation a little, but at some stage this wool will re-enter the auction room.
This week there is a slightly larger offering of just over 34,000 bales on offer at national selling centres and, given that the Chinese are celebrating their mid-autumn festival, things may be quiet.
Most pundits are expecting that the volume of business done following last week's sale is just a little shy of what is needed to keep things moving upwards, so we will probably see another smallish market decrease.
At some point in the next month, the market will emerge from the up and down, change of season gyrations, find its mojo and head upwards like it did last year - and the year before and the one before.
The wool market has taken a heck of a beating in the past couple of seasons after getting too far ahead of its customer base.
Prices did get too high, too quickly and processors and retailers were unable to pass on the increases to consumers.
But the correction, thanks firstly to the almost forgotten trade war between the US and China - and now COVID-19 - has been astounding in its veracity.
No doubt wool prices overshot to the downside, and now that wool has regained the $10 mark - long espoused as the break-even level for growers - we can hopefully look ahead to getting back into a more typical cyclical pattern.
Of course, it will still contain the usual volatility of the wool market to keep everyone on their toes.
Given such volatility year after year, and the difficulty of picking an 'up week' in which to sell, it is still surprising to see such a minority of growers using the futures market to hedge some of the risk.
At the pointy end of the market, things are starting to look a little better.
Still, retailers are understandably cautious and want to sell a decent chunk of their current inventory before committing to new quantities for next season.
So, new orders are not flowing back along the pipeline just yet. But signals from retail - on a macro level at least - are looking better.
Retail activity is increasing across the globe and, while clothing is taking longer to recover than other less discretionary segments, consumers are - in the most part - getting back out and returning to the high streets, rather than bunkering down in their houses.
Obviously there are exceptions in many places, and the end of job support - or an increase in COVID-19 cases in some countries - will make the recovery more subdued where that occurs.
In a market where the virus has largely been beaten - China - the huge population is enjoying a week of holidays to celebrate National Day and mid-autumn festival.
Also called Mooncake Festival, it is the second most important festival in China after the Chinese New Year, and retailers across the country will use the occasion to have big end-of-summer sales.
The rest of South East Asia also celebrates some form of mid-autumn festival this week.
So, while it may hamper processing activity temporarily, the moral boost and increase in consumer activity is more important.
Numerous reports from not just Asia, but also from around the globe, indicate that the well-heeled consumer is generally less affected financially than the low-income sector.
Consumers are also generally disposed to buy 'feel good' items to make them forget about missing out on things like that overseas holiday this year.
Those who target this market with high quality, premium Merino garments are the ones most likely to tick the recovery box soonest.
Thankfully, the wool industry is now a small niche part of the modern textile apparel sector, and not seeking to clothe every global consumer or satisfy the mass market.
But with this high-quality garment also comes high quality greasy wool specifications, and thus the increasing discounts for tender, high mid-break wools and - shortly - the increasing length of some Merino.
So, a recovery is on the way, but it is probably another month away.
In the meantime, we must expect plenty of volatility and an increasing discount for lower quality wools.