Fresh data released from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has highlighted the strong grain export program being executed around the world at present, and Australia is featuring prominently in wheat, barley, sorghum and oilseeds.
The past quarter has seen about 2.8 million tonnes of feed and malt barley exported from Australia alone, with Middle Eastern and Asian consumers our biggest trading counterparts - taking advantage of our attractive pricing.
Official sorghum figures hovered around the 95,000 tonne-mark for the past three months, but March onwards sees a ramp-up in harvest activity in Southern Queensland and down through the Liverpool Plains - where the bulk of this year's crop is to be centred.
The increased harvested volume will see shipping stems filled through March, April, May and June, as domestic consumers continue to preference wheat and barley for their rations.
The challenge now is to execute yet another commodity through already congested export channels, as well as navigating the quality concerns that a slightly later harvest brings with it.
A few more trucks wouldn't go astray either.
Despite recent tensions in barley and sorghum markets, China remains a crucial part of Australia's wheat export program, and we expect this to remain a constant throughout the remainder of 2020-21.
Globally, the market remains feed grain-driven, especially through Asia where the rebuilding of livestock numbers after the 2019-20 African Swine Flu outbreaks continues, as well as the stockpiling effect that COVID-19 has had on the broader market.
With the strong demand for feed grains internationally, the expectation is that premiums for high quality grain over low quality will remain tight.
But lingering dry conditions throughout the Canadian and Northern US high-protein wheat growing regions can't be overlooked, and will need to be monitored going forward should a supply hiccup occur there in 2021-22.
Also, while world wheat stocks are currently adequate on paper, it is where it is stored and who owns them that could prove interesting in 2021-22.
The carry-out stocks of the major exporters - Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, US, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Russia - are at levels where they can't afford either a significant production issue to arise or a governmental influence to impact on market participation.
Australia's recent wet weather, while frustrating for the summer crop harvest, has had a profound effect on the outlook for 2021-22 winter and summer cropping.
Soil moisture profiles for much of the east coast are at near-ideal levels, and only a shower at planting in the coming weeks would be needed to get the crop up and away.
This is a marked improvement from where we were this time last year.
While current prices for new crop wheat and barley are largely trading at evens to current crop, it is a reflection of the strength of the current export program that they are not at a significant discount.
