As Deputy Premier and NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro admitted earlier this week, The Nationals shouldn't even be in the race to win the seat of Upper Hunter at this Saturday's by-election.
But private polling and a sense the electorate is somewhat forgiving of what has forced this by-election, is giving hope to officials in The Nationals they can do the unbelievable.
Parties and independents already have an early idea of how things are going, with almost 27 per cent of voters already lodging pre-poll votes, with that expected to rise to 40 per cent by close of pre-polling today (Friday).
That means the other 60 per cent, or part thereof, will cast their votes on Saturday. The face of electioneering has changed - it's now as much about what happens pre-poll as on polling day.
As The Nationals hold Upper Hunter by just a 2.6 per cent margin, and the historic norm is a swing against an incumbent governent of 10 per cent in a by-election, it would seem almost imposssible for The Nationals to hold on to Upper Hunter. But in with a chance, they are.
A recent Daily Telegraph poll had them winning on a two-party preferred vote by 51-49 per cent over Labor - but there was almost a 16 per cent still undecided in the poll.
One Nationals figure told The Land on Friday "we're optimisitic".
The Nationals are anything but admitting defeat privately. In fact they are quietly confident, given their own private polling, despite almost everything stacked against them, including another stone thrown at them by rival Shooters, Farmers Fishers Party, who by default have preferenced Labor by putting it ahead of the Coalition on the Shooter's voting card.
They are facing a strong "jobs-based" Labor campaign that has locally-born NSW Labor leader Jodi McKay using all her local knowledge to help get ex-unionist Labor candidate Jeff Drayton over the line. Ms McKay is also facing her own leadership moment after losing one of her faithful frontbenchers, Penny Sharpe, who resigned from her position last week. Many see her future at stake with this by-election.
The election has had some unique interventions - former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull entered the fray giving his support to independent Kirsty O'Connell with her opposition to more coal mining. But polling shows she is picking up just 6 per cent of the vote. Mr Turnbull's entry produced a massive rebuke from Barilaro accusing him of being a traitor and telling him to resign from the Liberal party over his $3000 donation to O'Connell.
Turnbull countered yesterday saying: "What a joke! Barilaro called on me to resign when I was the Liberal Prime Minister of Australia!" .
Both One Nation and Shooters have been polling well, surprising to many who thought One Nation were largely dead in the water with the NSW electorate.
The Nationals though are hoping their "vote one Dave" campaign will pay off - that is one vote as the NSW system is optional preferential. And perhaps, maybe, suprisingly, they can pull off an unexpected victory, retaining the rural seat they've held for 99 years.
But how can this miracle be performed ? Insiders in The Nationals say they have found that what it is that's resonating with voters, it's not necessarily about the battle over the future of coal mining, not necessarily the battle over local issues and jobs, not necessarily about restoring the faith after the disgraced behaviour of the former Nats member - but just two simple things - the way the NSW Coalition has successfully handled the pandemic and how it has kept the economy going while other states economies' have spluttered, hit by lockdowns.
The result from Saturday's by-election - which could take days to finalise - could have a mammoth effect on the future of the party leaders, Gladys Berejiklian, Barilaro and McKay. They will learn what is biting with the electorate and how it, and their own political parties, bite back.
John Ellicott
journalist and author
journalist and author
