The state of NSW is going to feel the effects of an active weather pattern during the opening fortnight of June, with rain and storms currently spreading across the state and another, more dynamic weather system set to arrive next week.
A low pressure trough passing over Australia from west to east this week is interacting with moisture-laden air to cause showers and storms in multiple states.
These showers and thunderstorms mostly targeted western parts of the NSW on Wednesday and will continue to spread further north and east on Thursday.
All up, this two-day spell of wet and stormy weather should deliver 5-10mm of rain in a number of districts across central, western and northern NSW. Some areas will see 10-20mm, particularly underneath thunderstorms.
This trough will clear off the east coast on Friday, allowing drier weather to return to most of NSW for the rest of the week. However, a much stronger system is looming on the horizon and its impacts could be more widespread, severe and longer lasting.
A large upper-level cut-off low pressure system will move over southeastern Australia next week, most likely between Tuesday and Friday. This simply refers to a large, isolated pool of cold air several kilometres above the ground that has moved up towards Australia from the Southern Ocean.
These cut-off lows always cause a dynamic mix of weather when they move over Australia. Typical impacts include rain, thunderstorms, damaging winds, abnormally cold weather and low-level snow. They can also produce flooding and coastal erosion if strong low pressure systems develop near the surface.
It's too early to know exactly how the weather near the ground will respond to next week's upper-level cut-off low. Computer models are still struggling to determine exactly when, where and how strong the upper-low will be during the second half of the week. However, there is good model consensus that it will move directly over NSW at some point and as a result, we are likely to see an active period of weather lasting for several days.
More accurate information will become available over the weekend and early next week, so keep a close eye on the latest forecasts and warnings in your area.
This wet start to winter follows a relatively wet and cool autumn in NSW.
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