NSW is headed for another record winter crop but a number of elements are holding back estimates, including waterlogging, less nitrogen, late planting - and mice nibbling at the edges.
Three crops look to exceed last year - canola, barley and faba beans. Faba bean planting is estimated to be up 75 per cent, rising from a 40,000 hectare crop to about 107,000ha crop, according to Don McCaffery, the Department of Primary Industries' crop and oilseeds technical specialist.
Mr McCaffery also sees the canola crop going 650,000ha to 700,000ha, (up 25 per cent) equalling a 1 million tonne crush. Prices for both faba beans and canola are high, and even a crash in canola prices a week ago only took the price back to near record levels (about $690/t).
But the dry April and prolonged start to sowing will hinder final yields, says Mr McCaffery. Also croppers are using less nitrogen this year, partly due to the doubling in the price of urea, and perhaps the mistaken thought they need less nitrogen. "After last year's big crop they actually need more," he says. Farmers in the north are taking to the sky to spread urea. The wet weather has also delayed and hampered weed control.
Farmers want a dry July, Mr McCaffery says, but more rain is predicted this week in already wet districts. Anywhere north of Gilgandra has picked up more than 50mm during June, some areas hitting almost 100mm.
Many paddocks are waterlogged, especially in the Coonamble-Walgett area. Almost all soil moisture profiles were at 80 per cent, many are saturated. Farmers are hanging out for some dry weather. "They need at least three to four weeks of dry weather so they can do spraying jobs and topdress," Mr McCaffery said.
Faba beans were a major favourite in the north, able to be planted in the drier periods on the grey soils and despite fears of disease from last year still lingering. "It's the biggest faba bean crop I've seen in NSW," he said.
Barley plantings were up about 5 per cent to 900,000ha.