CLEAR skies over northern Australia thanks to dominant westerlies to the south has resulted in a sudden switch to warmer weather over the northern half of the continent and this warmer air will periodically reach into south east Australia in the coming month.
This means that August (and most likely into September and possibly early October) should generally experience above average maximum temperatures during this time along with the possibility of a slightly earlier start to storm season, especially in Queensland and northern NSW.
Developments in the Pacific Ocean are starting to get interesting with some cooler water returning to the tropical eastern Pacific.
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Current indications are not overly strong, but cooler water is favoured to become more widespread in the coming one to two months.
If this does occur, it is increasingly likely that a weak La Nina may emerge in the Pacific Ocean by October.
This is earlier than last year's La Nina and therefore may impact the weather earlier and lead to a wetter spring/early summer period than last year (last year's La Nina peaked in late summer).
Patterns in the Indian Ocean remain much the same as previous months with generally above average sea surface temperatures remaining over north east tropical Indian Ocean which is helping the development of at least a weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole.
This would be stronger if the western Indian Ocean was cooler. However, because of this negative IOD, rainfall potential during August to October in south east Australia remains above average, especially for areas on and west of the ranges.
However until easterly winds become more dominant, areas east of the ranges are likely to experience slightly below average rainfall at best.
More frequent easterlies aren't likely before late September or mid-October, by when we will have a better idea of what the Pacific Ocean is going to do.
That said, for much of August, weather should remain dictated by the westerly patterns which tend not to bring much rainfall east of the ranges in NSW or south east Queensland.
Given the early season warmth in the north of the continent, it is likely that daytime temperatures for the next three months will be at least slightly up on the long term norms, although that might not apply to the southern half of inland NSW and Victoria where the winter westerlies will be an influence into September.
Even in the central and north of the state, these warmer trends may be tempered by potential late winter/early spring north west cloud bands due to the favourable conditions in the Indian Ocean for such developments.
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