La Nina on the horizon | Weather In Focus

La Nina on the horizon | Weather In Focus

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Some of today's thunderstorms are likely to become severe, particularly over central and northern NSW, where supercell thunderstorms are possible.

Some of today's thunderstorms are likely to become severe, particularly over central and northern NSW, where supercell thunderstorms are possible.

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Rain and severe thunderstorms will hit parts of NSW this week and there are growing signs that more wet weather is on its way this summer.

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RAIN and severe thunderstorms will hit parts of NSW this week and there are growing signs that more wet weather is on its way this summer.

Earlier this week, a north-west cloud band delivered widespread rain across northern, central and eastern districts of NSW.

In the wake of this cloud band, a cut-off low pressure system caused showers and storms to redevelop over some parts of the state on Wednesday.

This wet and stormy weather will continue today, with showers and thunderstorms likely over a number of districts in eastern, central and southern parts of the state.

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Some of today's thunderstorms are likely to become severe, particularly over central and northern NSW, where supercell thunderstorms are possible.

Thunderstorms will become less likely over NSW from Friday, although shows will continue across the central and southern inland on Friday and Saturday. Some of these showers will fall as snow in the Alps.

In addition to this week's wet weather, we are also seeing increasing signs that La Nina will occur later this summer, increasing the likelihood of a wet summer in NSW.

Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are currently in a distinctive La Nina-like pattern and most forecast models suggest that this trend will continue in the months ahead.

Back in mid-September, the Bureau of Meteorology issued a La Nina Watch, indicating that there was a 50 pe rcent chance of a La Nina forming later this year.

This week, the Bureau has increased this to a La Nina Alert, which means the odds of La Nina have increased to 70 per cent.

La Nina weather events typically bring above average rainfall, below average maximum temperatures and above average overnight temperatures across large areas of Australia, including NSW.

It also typically produces more tropical cyclones during Australia's cyclone season, which runs from November until April.

If we do see a fully-fledged La Nina forming in the next few months, this would be the first back-to-back La Nina event in a decade.

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