Rabobank's Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat price forecast is for above US700 cents per bushel during the next 12 months.
This means a favourable outlook for Australian wheat prices.
Notwithstanding another bumper Australian wheat crop this season - by our estimates it will be down only 5 per cent from last year to 31.9 million tonnes - our expectation is for Australian APW wheat prices to remain at least in decile seven pricing until quarter three 2022.
Globally and locally though, higher protein wheat has an even brighter outlook.
The Minneapolis Hard Red Spring wheat (MGEX wheat) cash price opened November trading above US1200c per bushel, which is a level surpassed only twice before.
The first time was in 2008, when the MGEX wheat price skyrocketed - although briefly - to above US2000c per bushel, before swiftly dropping into the US700c per bushel range.
The second time was in 2011, when the price rise stopped before US1500c per bushel level, but then settled near to US1000c per bushel for two years.
MGEX wheat is spring wheat with a protein content of 13.5 per cent or higher.
Its more than 60pc increase in price this past year reflects the declining stocks of higher protein wheat within a tight broader wheat market.
And it's little wonder, given North America's 2021 season.
US hard red spring wheat production is down 44pc year-on-year due to drought.
In Canada, where spring wheat accounts for more than 70pc of total wheat grown, production has come in at 36pct down year-on-year and 31pc below the five-year average.
On top of this, durum production, which is also part of the protein story, is down 46pc year-on-year in Canada, and 85 per cent year-on-year in the US.
In Europe, harvest rain downgrades have reduced the availability of high protein milling wheat.
In Russia, the spring wheat harvest has come in around the same year-on-year, although within a smaller total wheat crop and amidst government export constraints.
This means availability remains uncertain.
In Kazakhstan, drought in the country's spring wheat regions during June to August means its 2021 harvest has come in 16pc lower than last year.
The next injection of high protein wheat in the Northern Hemisphere is not for another eight months.
So, it's little wonder global markets expect to continue to pay for high protein wheat.
The MGEX wheat forward curve shows expectations its price will move towards the mid-US900c per bushel range by March 2022 and then to the mid-US800c per bushel range by mid-next year.
But this is still 40pc above the five-year average and at a premium of around US150c per bushel to our CBOT wheat forecast.
These moves lower are on expectations that favourable conditions will return in key spring wheat-growing regions, especially Canada.
It's too early to judge whether they will, but early signs provide no confidence.
In the meantime, this leaves Australia in the box seat to provide sought-after, high protein wheat to global markets and regain South East Asian market share - until at least July next year.
It also sets the stage for wider spreads for higher protein wheat until there is at least some confidence the Northern Hemisphere 2022 spring crops are on track.
