Winter grain harvest has started in most parts of New South Wales as we approach the end of November.
There was some good progress made early on, but the past 14 days have not been kind.
In recent years, harvest has been well and truly finished by the Christmas period.
But 2021 does feel like the year where social plans for end-of-year festivities might have to be adjusted.
Headers have been rolling in southern Queensland since the start of October, and most farmers were able to get the majority of their crop in the bin before the current pattern of rain set in.
This week, many are indicating southern Queensland's cereal harvest is about 80-90 per cent complete.
This is a huge effort from those north of the border.
Northern NSW croppers typically start harvesting a couple of weeks later and, despite every effort, have unfortunately not been able to get as much grain off as they would have liked.
Much of what has been harvested so far in the northern parts of the state is canola and barley. Wheat is typically the last cab off the rank.
Currently, canola harvested could be anywhere between 70 and 80pc complete.
Wheat, at about 25pc, is only a quarter of the way through.
Early-harvested wheat has shown to be very good quality.
But, with the amount of rain experienced in the past two weeks, the profile of the remaining crop in the paddock is the topic of many conversations.
The southern half of NSW is only just getting started on harvest, with progress at about 5pc for canola and less than 1pc for wheat.
Quality issues may start showing up in canola, as some windrowed crop has now been on the deck for two to three weeks.
A big percentage of the canola harvested is showing excellent yield on both tonnage and oil profile.
Test weight and shattering of canola heads will be the main issue going forward because of ongoing rain.
Wheat quality in the south is still undefined and, with most of the crop still green and minimal amount of harvest activity, we will have to wait a few weeks to see what quality hits the bins.
On the marketing front, quality concerns and a slow harvest pace have been reflected in cash board prices.
Values have been firming overall and spreads are widening for milling quality versus lower grade feed grain.
The biggest changes we have seen is in the spreads on wheat grades, with the highest quality and lowest quality wheat difference in price at more than $100 per tonne.
If we compare this to last year, 2020-21 spreads between low and high quality were about $30/t - depending on the day-to-day market.
It appears more rain may be on the forecast.
So, there may be more to play out on grade spreads moving forward.
While harvest progress has been slowing due to continual rain events, the grain markets have been anything but.
Weather premiums and discounts have been showing up in places.
So, when marketing your grain, look for opportunities that will present out the curve.
