MEATWORKER absenteeism due to COVID-19 infections has improved, delivering slaughter rates far more on par with what was expected for the start of 2022.
Rapid antigen tests finally seem to be on hand for abattoir managers and while labour issues are a long way from solved in the processing sector, the drastic Omicron disruption appears to be settling.
China's ongoing suspensions of Australian plants is, however, showing no signs of easing.
The big question in the wake of the latest ban, that of the South Australian Teys Naracoorte plant, is how much of Australia's capacity to send beef to China is now sidelined.
Even if the beef export sector could put its finger on that figure, it's unlikely to share it on account of the very competitive nature of the game.
Australian Meat Industry Council boss Patrick Hutchinson said there were always ebbs and flows based on the availability of different types of product, and demand, in any market but there were still plants licenced to supply China and capacity to export.
Meat & Livestock Australia is forecasting Australian exports to China will increased around 3 per cent in 2022, mostly due to a lift in supply of cattle here.
However, most of the forecast growth in Chinese beef imports for 2022 is likely to be supplied by Brazil and Argentina.
The nine Australian plants currently suspended from servicing the Chinese have been able to find replacement markets but typically diversifying for volume was easier than for value, Mr Hutchinson said.
"We are still exporting a large amount of beef to China, albeit not what it was in 2019," he said.
"What we are looking for is improved dialogue between governments. We are collateral damage when these relationships fall apart.
"But we do see these issues with beef markets all over the world, for all sorts of reasons. China is still a strong customer of Australian beef."
MLA market information manager Stephen Bignell agreed.
"China remains a very valuable market which takes a lot of our premium product," he said in a recent MLA webinar.
"What is encouraging is Australia doesn't have a concentration risk with China, like some of our competitors.
"Argentina is sending north of 75pc of their product to China, for example.
"Up until African swine fever emerged, we were sending under 20pc. Last year it was 17pc.
"China is our fourth largest market but we've got really strong trading relationships with many, many other markets.
"ASF and demand in China is helping to push up prices globally so even if we have issues accessing China, elevated prices are occurring in markets we can access."
MLA is forecasting the national slaughter to rise by 11pc to reach 6.7m head this year. By 2024, it should be 31pc higher than 2021 levels.
ALSO SEE: Taste for Aussie grain-fed beef grows
Ramping up robotics
WHILE processors intend to make labour shortages an election issue in Australia this year, pushing for a specific meat processor visa, analysts are starting to look at the longer term implications.
Labour shortages in processing is happening across all proteins and in many beef exporting nations that Australia both competes with and counts as a customer.
Rabobank's United States-based senior animal protein analyst Don Close identified labour as one of four major issues driving fundamental change in beef supply chains at the moment in his recent report Beef Supply in a Post-COVID World.
Availability of labour in processing was a challenge pre-COVID but the drop in workers exploded during the early virus outbreak in the United States.
Mr Close reported plant wages in the US have increased by more than 33pc over the past two years but even with higher wages and payment of retention bonuses, finding enough labour continues to be a challenge and absenteeism an ongoing problem.
There is no doubt it is increasing processing costs and the US has crossed a tipping point, where the situation is fueling the bringing of new technology and robotics into processing plants at an accelerated pace, his report said.
Short-term, automation moves will likely focus on traceability, boxed beef transfer, labeling, storage, order filling and driverless forklifts, Mr Close believes.
"The initial introduction of increased technology will not serve as a replacement for labour but to make it more efficient," he said.
Increased robotics are only a matter of years away.
"A challenge with the use of high-tech machines and automations is they require completely different skill sets," Mr Close said.
"The question is whether the people that hold those technical skill sets will be interested in living in often rural beef plant locations and working in a plant environment.
"The other point is any workforce reductions that come with automation will likely be met with labour union opposition."
For all the big news in beef, sign up below to receive our Red Meat newsletter.