Without a meaningful resolution in sight for the crisis in Ukraine, the market continues to trade under the expectation that disruptions to Black Sea grains and oilseeds will be felt for a while yet.
This is increasing the requirement for alternative origins to step-up and fill the shortfall.
This continues to fuel both old and new crop pricing here in Australia as we look to continue to participate in these markets ahead of the highly anticipated season of 2022-23.
And while current global stocks of most commodities are broadly comfortable, questions are beginning to form around some of the other origins of wheat, corn and oilseeds.
Production estimates from key exporting nations, highlighted in the most recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) March Quarterly Stocks and Planting Intentions report, will see all markets remain highly sensitive to any additional concerns - perceived or actual.
The US grower has reacted to the broader oilseed complexes' issues emanating from last year's tight supply in North America and Canada, which linger in the market (highlighted by the recent sale of 30,000 tonnes of Australian canola to the US), the current situation in Eastern Europe and the dry conditions impacting the early Brazilian soybean crop.
With that, the US has gone ahead and planted a record large soybean crop.
Planted area to soybeans has eclipsed corn for only the third time in history.
Additionally, the Canadian and North American canola crops are reportedly in sound condition early in their growing season.
This development heightens international interest in the condition of the Brazilian corn crop, especially the second - or Safrinha - crop, which is harvested from June through to August.
La Nina conditions in South America during the past two-to-three months has impacted its earlier corn and soybeans, which are harvested from February through to April.
This second crop, however, represents about three-quarters of Brazil's annual corn production, and will increasingly be relied on to shore-up both domestic supplies and being tasked with helping to bridge the gap caused by Ukraine's forced withdrawal from the market.
Reportedly, the crop was planted into near-ideal conditions.
But conditions during March have become patchy and all eyes will be on whether or not the crop will receive enough rain in the coming weeks to bring the crop home.
For every technically bullish sentiment that comes through, however, there is a counterpoint tempering the enthusiasm.
Input costs are ratcheting higher, labour and transport shortages and weather issues are impacting the finalisation of summer crops and delaying winter crop planting - which is all front of mind.
This sees cautious engagement by the trade, which needs to treat the bullish market tone and the bearish execution risk just the same.
Expect to see choppy markets for the foreseeable future.
Every fresh geo-political development, weather forecast and adjustment in input values will have a marked impact on bids on any given day.
These scenarios do bring about opportunity.
But keeping a keen eye out for those flashes in the pan will be key to navigating these expectedly rough markets this season.
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